{"id":40802235876,"date":"2018-11-05T13:03:00","date_gmt":"2018-11-05T18:03:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:04","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:04","slug":"battle-for-the-house-if-you-want-to-know-why-then-look-to-the-regions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2018\/11\/05\/battle-for-the-house-if-you-want-to-know-why-then-look-to-the-regions\/","title":{"rendered":"Battle for the House: If you want to know “why” then look to the regions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here\u2019s my #2018Midterms HOUSE watch thread:\u00a0 Other forecasters focus on the numbers, but I\u2019m more interested in themes.\u00a0 First thing is you can now ignore the national generic ballot and Trump rating \u2013 both have been stable for 4 weeks. As we learned in 2016, the national polls did not tell the story of that election. It was a set of regional stories that determined the outcome, e.g. breach of the industrial Midwest\u2019s \u201cblue wall,\u201d Clinton\u2019s ill-conceived attempt to expand the map into the Southwest, etc.<\/p>\n

[Find more details from the Monmouth University Poll’s 2018 House polling<\/a> .]<\/strong><\/p>\n

The 2018 House will be a regional one as well. While all the issues I am about to mention play out nationally, their impact is more of a factor in different regions.\u00a0 Let\u2019s start in order of poll closings.\u00a0 We might see some early disappointment for Dems and hope for Republicans in places like #KY06 and #WV03. But these may be more of a sign that \u201cred gravity\u201d in the inland SOUTH is just too heavy for Democrats to reach escape velocity.\u00a0 If Dems pick up one of those, they are probably in for a good night, but we will need a little more data to see if they weren\u2019t idiosyncratic victories.<\/p>\n

The next region to focus on is the EAST COAST \u2013 this is where Dems look likely to pick up their largest number of House seats.\u00a0 This is where white suburban college educated women are the single biggest voting bloc. Those that have voted Republican in the past are not happy with Pres. Trump and not happy with their party leaderships\u2019 unwillingness or inability to provide a check on that. In other words, they feel their party has left them. Combine that with high levels of enthusiasm among Democrats and you have the makings of a blue wave.\u00a0 The question is whether this wave could materialize here but dissipate as it tries to cross the Appalachians.<\/p>\n

Virginia could provide the answer as it contains a number of competitive districts that could indicate how far a wave could travel if it materializes. First, if Republicans can hold onto #VA10, there is no blue wave \u2013 in fact, not even a turquoise ripple.\u00a0 But Dems winning that one seat does not necessarily get them to 218 in the House. #VA07 will be a key.\u00a0 If Dems pick up this seat, then they are almost certainly on the path to a majority.\u00a0 If Dems can also swing one or both of #VA02 and #VA05 then they are on the path to a very big night as we head west.<\/p>\n

Next up is the MIDWEST.\u00a0 If the Northeast is largely a story of \u201cRomney-Clinton\u201d districts, the Midwest is where we are looking at \u201cObama-Trump\u201d districts. But it might be more accurate \u2013 and easier to understand the dynamics there if we refer to them as \u201cChange-Change<\/strong>\u201d districts instead.<\/p>\n

This region is more populated (relative to other regions) with voters who feel government is deaf to their concerns and that politicians are more interesting in protecting the interests of the \u201cestablishment.\u201d\u00a0 Many of them still like Trump simply because he continues to destabilize the establishment. But they don\u2019t necessarily feel that way about the Republicans running for Congress. Combine that factor with enthusiasm among suburban Dems who regret staying at home in 2016, and you have a recipe for another big haul for Democrats.\u00a0 On the other hand, the president\u2019s recent appeals to his supporters to think of this election as him being on the ballot might be just enough for Republicans to hold on to many of these seats (although it\u2019s not looking that way right now).<\/p>\n

Then we move to CALIFORNIA and the SOUTHWEST. These are some of the most \u2013 and rapidly growing so \u2013 culturally diverse districts in the country. \u00a0This may sound like good news for Democrats, but there are two problems. First, Hispanic and Asian voters are the least likely to show up to vote, especially in midterms. Second, Latino men are not monolithically Democratic \u2013 in fact they may be one of the biggest swing groups in the country.\u00a0 Democrats need to turn out a big number of first-time midterm voters. This group is a key ingredient for them in the East and Midwest, but early vote returns suggest they may be still lagging in places like southern CA and TX.<\/p>\n

Republicans, on the other hand, need to hold on to a significant number of Latino men, as polls suggest they are doing now in the Southwest.\u00a0 One issue central to this is immigration, where many Latinos side with GOP policy.\u00a0 This is one region where immigration competes with health care as the top issue that voters say they are looking at when they consider their House vote. Republicans have a built-in advantage if they can get voters to prioritize concerns about immigration in their choice for House.<\/p>\n

[Side note: if determining control of Congress comes down to Southern California, we probably won\u2019t know the results for another month because apparently each county clerk there is provided with a single abacus on which to tally the votes.]<\/p>\n

The bottom line is that we could see a blue wave in one or two areas but not in others. If you want to understand the \u201cwhy\u201d and not just the \u201chow many\u201d of party shift in the House, pay attention to the regional differences.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here\u2019s my #2018Midterms HOUSE watch thread:\u00a0 Other forecasters focus on the numbers, but I\u2019m more interested in themes.\u00a0 First thing is you can now ignore the national generic ballot and Trump rating \u2013 both have been stable for 4 weeks. As we learned in 2016, the national polls did not tell the story of that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802235876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235876","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802235876"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235876\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802237495,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235876\/revisions\/40802237495"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802235876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802235876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802235876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}