{"id":40802235873,"date":"2018-11-12T13:54:00","date_gmt":"2018-11-12T18:54:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2021-01-25T11:22:04","modified_gmt":"2021-01-25T16:22:04","slug":"monmouth-university-poll-2018-midterm-recap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/2018\/11\/12\/monmouth-university-poll-2018-midterm-recap\/","title":{"rendered":"Monmouth University Poll \u2013 2018 Midterm Recap"},"content":{"rendered":"

[Note:\u00a0 All Monmouth poll reports can be found at\u00a0www.monmouth.edu\/polling<\/a>\u00a0.]<\/p>\n

The Monmouth University Poll made a commitment in the 2018 midterms to focus on a range of Congressional races that would help the public understand what factors were at play in this election. Monmouth\u2019s polls in the final weeks of the campaign captured the trajectory of the race for control of the U.S. House.\u00a0\u00a0Specifically, Monmouth\u2019s likely voter model results for four polls conducted in late October were very close to the final margins in those contests.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe really wanted to focus on the important issues at play while conveying a reasonable range of potential outcomes. Our primary goal was not to predict results, but rather to tell an accurate story of the factors driving this election and the direction it could potentially go,\u201d said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.<\/p>\n

Monmouth\u2019s polling in 13 competitive House races, plus one Senate race, depicted the unusually high levels of interest among voters this year. This includes an early Democratic enthusiasm advantage in the summer and Republicans closing that gap in the fall.\u00a0\u00a0In addition to the individual poll reports in these districts, Monmouth released additional analysis that gave an overview of the state of the race, first\u00a0after Labor Day<\/a>\u00a0and again\u00a0right before Election Day<\/a>. These reports went beyond the \u201chorse race\u201d to examine the issues and dynamics at play in different regions of the country and among key voting blocs.<\/p>\n

A notable innovation in the way Monmouth reported its findings in 2018 was showing the results for more than one potential turnout scenario. This approach pointed to a range of realistic outcomes and also conveyed the inherent uncertainty involved in election polling. These models were based on tests conducted in two special elections held earlier in the year, which accurately pointed to the dynamics in those races.\u00a0\u00a0Monmouth\u2019s special election polling showed the Democrats gaining in both races over the final weeks of those campaigns, pulling ahead in the\u00a0PA18<\/a>\u00a0race in March, but falling short in\u00a0OH12<\/a>\u00a0in August.<\/p>\n

\"Image<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[Note:\u00a0 All Monmouth poll reports can be found at\u00a0www.monmouth.edu\/polling\u00a0.] The Monmouth University Poll made a commitment in the 2018 midterms to focus on a range of Congressional races that would help the public understand what factors were at play in this election. Monmouth\u2019s polls in the final weeks of the campaign captured the trajectory of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":939,"featured_media":40802236395,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40802235873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/939"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40802235873"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235873\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802242041,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40802235873\/revisions\/40802242041"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40802236395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802235873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40802235873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40802235873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}