{"id":40802258378,"date":"2024-09-26T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-26T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/?post_type=poll&p=40802258378"},"modified":"2024-10-18T11:06:10","modified_gmt":"2024-10-18T15:06:10","slug":"monmouthpoll_pa_092624","status":"publish","type":"poll","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_pa_092624\/","title":{"rendered":"Tight Senate Race Tracks with Presidential Vote Intent"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

West Long Branch, NJ<\/em> \u2013 A Monmouth <\/em><\/strong>(<\/em><\/strong>\u201cMon-muth\u201d<\/em><\/strong>) <\/em><\/strong>University Poll<\/em><\/strong> of Pennsylvania voters finds a very close race for the U.S. Senate between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick. Voter preferences in the senate contest mirror their presidential choice with little indication of significant ticket-splitting across the two contests. The poll finds Casey and McCormick with nearly identical personal ratings and very little difference between the two in trust on the issues. The only exception is handling abortion policy, where the Democrat has an advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 4 in 10 Pennsylvania voters say they will either definitely (34%) or probably (11%) vote for Casey in November and, in a separate question, a similar number will definitely (27%) or probably (15%) support McCormick. At the other end of the spectrum, 40% say they will definitely not<\/em> vote for McCormick while 37% say they definitely will not<\/em> vote for Casey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Pennsylvania:<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is not much evidence in the poll that Pennsylvania voters intend to split their votes this year from the party of their presidential candidate preference<\/a>. Specifically, 84% of Donald Trump supporters say they will definitely or probably vote for McCormick and just 3% will vote for Casey. Among backers of Kamala Harris, 87% intend to vote for Casey and just 5% support McCormick. There is slightly more indecision among Trump voters (12% no candidate choice) than Harris voters (7%) when it comes to the U.S. Senate race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe McCormick campaign\u2019s attack strategy has been to tie Casey to Harris. That may be why we don\u2019t see a lot of daylight between voter preferences in the senate and presidential races,\u201d said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monmouth also asked about potential support for third-party candidates in the senate race. Just 2% of registered voters in Pennsylvania say they will definitely support one of these candidates while another 5% say they will probably support one of these candidates. The third-party factor shaves about two percentage points off McCormick\u2019s total support and about one point off Casey\u2019s support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Chart<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The poll was conducted among Pennsylvania registered voters, but not all of them will actually vote. If the electorate is identical to turnout from the 2020 election, then the race could be exceedingly tight. Specifically, among those who were validated as having voted in the 2020 election according to the registration list, Casey has 43% support and McCormick has 44%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The picture of this race shifts slightly when examining a key turnout metric \u2013 motivation. Among voters who describe themselves as extremely motivated to cast a ballot this year, Casey has 48% definite or probable support and McCormick has 43% support. Third-party candidate backing drops to 4% among extremely motivated voters and the proportion of the motivated electorate who can be described as undecided \u2013 meaning they do not lean toward any candidate \u2013 stands at 5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Pennsylvania<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Turning to the U.S. House election in Pennsylvania, a generic congressional ballot test gives Republicans 49% of the potential statewide vote and Democrats get 47%. Among the extremely motivated voters, though, the vote share flips, with Democrats getting 50% support and Republicans getting 48%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMotivation seems to be working in the Democrats\u2019 favor right now. However, all these Pennsylvania contests \u2013 from president to U.S. Senate to competitive House seats \u2013 are extremely close and could easily go either way,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The poll finds that most candidate metrics in the U.S. Senate contest register about the same for the two major party nominees. Just under half have a favorable rating of Casey (47%) and McCormick (47%). When these ratings are taken together, 6% of Pennsylvania voters have a favorable opinion of both candidates, 41% have a favorable opinion of Casey only, 41% have a favorable opinion of McCormick only, and 10% do not have a favorable opinion of either man.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turning to important issues in the election, similar numbers of voters say the political views of Casey (44%) and McCormick (41%) are in line with most residents of Pennsylvania. Identical numbers trust Casey (49%) and McCormick (49%) at least somewhat to handle economic growth. Nearly identical numbers trust Casey (45%) and McCormick (47%) to handle immigration. The only policy area where voters differentiate between the two candidates is abortion. On this issue, 50% of Pennsylvania voters trust Casey while 38% trust McCormick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe question is not which issue will win over undecided voters, but which issue will motivate more voters on your side to cast a ballot,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em> was conducted by telephone and online from September 19 to 23, 2024 with 654 Pennsylvania registered voters. The question results in this release have a margin of error +\/- 4.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Q1-6 previously released.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 7 & 8 WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turning to the candidates for U.S. Senate this year\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7.<\/span>Is your general impression of Dave McCormick, the Republican candidate, very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Very favorable<\/td>20%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Somewhat favorable<\/td>27%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Somewhat unfavorable<\/td>14%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Very unfavorable<\/td>36%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) No opinion<\/td>2%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

8.<\/span>Is your general impression of Bob Casey, the Democratic candidate, very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Very favorable<\/td>23%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Somewhat favorable<\/td>24%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Somewhat unfavorable<\/td>16%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Very unfavorable<\/td>35%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) No opinion<\/td>1%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 9 & 10 WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

9.<\/span>How likely are you to vote for Dave McCormick in the election for U.S. Senate \u2013 will you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Definitely<\/td>27%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Probably<\/td>15%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Probably not<\/td>14%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Definitely not<\/td>40%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>4%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

10.<\/span>How likely are you to vote for Bob Casey in the election for U.S. Senate \u2013 will you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Definitely<\/td>34%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Probably<\/td>11%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Probably not<\/td>15%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Definitely not<\/td>37%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>3%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

11.<\/span>How likely are you to vote for one of the third party candidates running for U.S. Senate this year \u2013 will you definitely vote for a third party candidate, probably vote third party, probably not vote third party, or definitely not vote for a third party candidate?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Definitely<\/td>2%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Probably<\/td>5%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Probably not<\/td>19%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Definitely not<\/td>71%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>3%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 12 & 13 WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

12.<\/span>Are Dave McCormick\u2019s political views in line or out of step with most residents of Pennsylvania?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
In line<\/td>41%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Out of step<\/td>47%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>12%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

13.<\/span>Are Bob Casey\u2019s political views in line or out of step with most residents of Pennsylvania?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
In line<\/td>44%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Out of step<\/td>46%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>9%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q14-17 previously released.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 18A & 18B WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turning to the candidates for U.S. Senate\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

18A.<\/span>How much do you trust Dave McCormick to handle the issue of economic growth \u2013 a great deal, some, not much, or not at all?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Great deal<\/td>23%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Some<\/td>26%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not much<\/td>16%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not at all<\/td>33%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>3%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

18B.<\/span>How much do you trust Bob Casey to handle the issue of economic growth \u2013 a great deal, some, not much, or not at all?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Great deal<\/td>23%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Some<\/td>26%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not much<\/td>18%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not at all<\/td>32%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>2%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 19A & 19B WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

19A.<\/span>How much do you trust Dave McCormick to handle the issue of immigration \u2013 a great deal, some, not much, or not at all?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Great deal<\/td>24%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Some<\/td>23%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not much<\/td>14%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not at all<\/td>37%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>2%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

19B.<\/span>How much do you trust Bob Casey to handle the issue of immigration \u2013 a great deal, some, not much, or not at all?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Great deal<\/td>21%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Some<\/td>24%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not much<\/td>14%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not at all<\/td>39%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>2%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 20A & 20B WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

20A.<\/span>How much do you trust Dave McCormick to handle the issue of abortion \u2013 a great deal, some, not much, or not at all?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Great deal<\/td>14%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Some<\/td>24%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not much<\/td>12%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not at all<\/td>44%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>6%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

20B.<\/span>How much do you trust Bob Casey to handle the issue of abortion \u2013 a great deal, some, not much, or not at all?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Great deal<\/td>30%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Some<\/td>20%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not much<\/td>15%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not at all<\/td>28%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>6%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q21-22 previously released.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

23.<\/span>How will you vote this year \u2013 in person on Election Day, in person at an early voting location, by mail ballot, or won\u2019t you vote at all?<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
In person on Election Day<\/td>69%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
In person at an early voting location<\/td>5%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
By mail ballot<\/td>24%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Won\u2019t vote at all<\/td>2%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>1%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

24.<\/span>If the election for U.S. House of Representatives was held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate in your Congressional district? [PARTIES WERE ROTATED<\/em>] [If UNDECIDED:<\/em> At this time do you lean more toward the Republican or more toward the Democratic candidate?]<\/span><\/h3>\n
Registered voters<\/em><\/th>Sept.
2024<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Republican<\/td>49%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Democratic<\/td>47%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Neither<\/td>3%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>1%<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(654)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q25 previously released.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n

METHODOLOGY<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em> was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 19 to 23, 2024 with a probability-based random sample of 654 Pennsylvania voters. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 111 live landline telephone interviews, 182 live cell phone interviews, and 361 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research using telephone numbers randomly selected from a list of active registered voters obtained from Aristotle. The full sample is weighted for region, age, gender, race and listed partisanship based on the voter list and education based on US Census information (2022 CPS and 2021 ACS one-year surveys), with adjustments made for self-reported 2020 presidential vote. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.36). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n

Demographics (weighted)<\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n

Party (registration): 42% Republican, 44% Democrat, 14% other, none<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Party (self-reported): 36% Republican, 29% Independent, 35% Democrat<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sex: 47% men, 52% women, 1% other<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Age: 23% 18-34, 23% 35-49, 26% 50-64, 28% 65+<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Race: 82% White, 10% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian\/other<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Education: 37% high school or less, 25% some college, 23% 4 year degree, 15% graduate degree<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Region: 11% Philadelphia, 22% Philly suburbs, 15% Northeast, 17% PA Dutch Country,<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

11% Central, 14% Western, 10% Allegheny<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Very little daylight between candidates on issues, favorability<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":40802258386,"template":"","geography":[36],"class_list":["post-40802258378","poll","type-poll","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","geography-pennsylvania"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802258378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/poll"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802258378\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802258488,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802258378\/revisions\/40802258488"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40802258386"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802258378"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"geography","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/geography?post=40802258378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}