{"id":40802253531,"date":"2022-11-02T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-02T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/?post_type=poll&p=40802253531"},"modified":"2022-11-02T10:37:28","modified_gmt":"2022-11-02T14:37:28","slug":"monmouthpoll_pa_110222","status":"publish","type":"poll","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_pa_110222\/","title":{"rendered":"Senate Debate Shows Little Impact"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

West Long Branch, NJ<\/em> \u2013 John Fetterman\u2019s edge over Mehmet Oz on key issues in Pennsylvania\u2019s U.S. Senate contest has narrowed, although the Democrat continues to be seen as having a better understanding of voters\u2019 day-to-day concerns. The last Monmouth (\u201c<\/em><\/strong>Mon-muth<\/em><\/strong>\u201d) <\/em><\/strong>University Poll<\/em><\/strong> of this contest finds that concerns about Fetterman\u2019s health, particularly in light of last week\u2019s televised debate, have been raised by some voters, but the impact on their actual candidate choice has been minimal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nearly half of the electorate will either definitely (39%) or probably (9%) vote for Fetterman, which is similar to his support levels in prior Monmouth polls (48% total compared with 48% in early October and 49% in September). Oz, on the other hand, continues to make small but steady gains in support, with 32% definitely supporting him and 12% probably supporting. His combined 44% support level is about the same as 43% in early October and up from 39% in September, although it is worth noting that Oz\u2019s \u201cdefinite\u201d support has increased by 7 points since early October, while Fetterman\u2019s \u201cdefinite\u201d support has only gone up by 2 points. The increase in Oz\u2019s overall backing has been most significant among independents, going from a combined 29% to 41% in Monmouth\u2019s polling since September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe month-to-month shifts in support for Oz are not statistically significant. The overall trend suggests he has been chipping away with some voters who have not been completely comfortable with him, but that mainly happened prior to the debate. Fetterman\u2019s performance may have had an impact on the margins but we don\u2019t see any evidence of a wholesale shift in the race,\u201d said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nominally, more voters believe (48%) rather than disbelieve (38%) Fetterman\u2019s explanation that his speaking problems do not affect his ability to think or do his job. Another 12% are unaware that Fetterman has had trouble speaking in public. In terms of direct impact, 3% of the Pennsylvania electorate \u2013 including 7% of independent voters \u2013 say they are reconsidering their candidate choice because of what they saw in last week\u2019s debate. Another 22% say the debate raised serious concerns but did not cause them to reconsider their vote. Most voters either report no serious concerns from the debate (46%) or did not see or hear anything about the debate (27%). Still, fewer voters see Fetterman as capable of effectively serving a six-year senate term (48%) than say the same about Oz (59%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe asked about each candidate\u2019s ability to serve before we introduced any questions on Fetterman\u2019s health issues in the poll. This means the differential response in these results is not a product of question priming, but rather suggests that at least some voters are considering the impact of his recent stroke. In the end, though, many other factors appear to be more pressing for voters,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The poll finds that Fetterman\u2019s issue advantage from earlier in the fall campaign has shrunk in some key areas. He still holds a small edge on being trusted more to handle jobs, the economy and cost of living \u2013 46% to 38% for Oz \u2013 but he has lost his earlier leads on crime \u2013 now 42% Oz to 42% Fetterman \u2013 and immigration \u2013 41% Oz to 37% Fetterman. On the other hand, Fetterman (55%) continues to outpace Oz (42%) for being seen as having at least some understanding of Pennsylvanians\u2019 day-to-day concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The poll does not attempt to predict turnout, but past voter history metrics and self-reported motivation give a picture of a range of possible outcomes. Among voters who participated in the 2020 presidential election, similar numbers definitely (39%) or probably (9%) support Fetterman as those who definitely (33%) or probably (12%) support Oz. The race is also close among those who voted in the 2018 \u201cblue wave\u201d midterm election, with support for Fetterman (42% definite and 7% probable) similar to that for Oz (35% definite and 10% probable). Among the 2 in 3 voters who are extremely motivated to turn out this year, support for Fetterman (46% definite and 5% probable) is slightly higher than for Oz (39% definite and 8% probable). Among voters who have already returned a mail ballot or intend to vote early \u2013 about one-quarter of the electorate \u2013 Fetterman has a clear edge with 68% backing him to just 25% for Oz. The Republican has greater support among those who plan to vote on Election Day \u2013 52% compared with 41% who back the Democrat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHere\u2019s your reminder that, regardless of the outcome, Oz will almost certainly have a lead in the Election Day vote tally. That gap will narrow and perhaps be overtaken as legally cast mail ballots are counted in the ensuing days. This fact won\u2019t stop the conspiracy theorists, but there you have it,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pennsylvania voters continue to have a largely negative view of the Republican nominee at 40% favorable and 53% unfavorable. Opinion is split on the Democrat at 47% favorable and 46% unfavorable. Both ratings have been fairly consistent throughout the fall campaign, with the exception of a small nominal shift in both Oz\u2019s positives and Fetterman\u2019s negatives; each has gone up by 4 points since September. Currently, 45% of voters have definitely ruled out voting for Oz and a similar 44% say the same for Fetterman. This number has been fairly consistent for the Republican all fall, although the current results represent a 6-point increase in opposition to the Democrat since September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOz is hanging in this race despite the fact that most Pennsylvania voters don\u2019t really like him,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, 4% of voters say they will definitely vote for a third-party candidate. These voters are equally divided between Democratic and Republican partisans, however, so it is not clear if they are drawing support away from one of the major party candidates more than the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other poll results related to Fetterman\u2019s health, more voters say he has been transparent about his current health status (50%) than say he has not been (41%). They are divided on whether there has been too much (31%), not enough (29%), or the right amount (29%) of media coverage of Fetterman\u2019s health. More than 7 in 10 Pennsylvania voters personally know someone who has had stroke-related problems similar to Fetterman. However, this familiarity, or the lack thereof, has little impact on opinion about Fetterman\u2019s health status or overall candidate support when controlling for partisanship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The poll also finds Pennsylvania voters remain divided on their preference for which party should control Congress \u2013 48% choose the Democrats and 45% choose the Republicans. Support for a GOP led Congress has dipped insignificantly by two points since early October while Democratic backing has held steady. In statistical terms, party preference for Congress has remained evenly divided throughout the fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em> was conducted by telephone from October 27 to 31, 2022 with 608 Pennsylvania registered voters. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +\/- 4.5 percentage points for the full sample. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.<\/span>Would you rather see the Republicans or the Democrats in control of Congress, or doesn\u2019t this matter to you? [CHOICES WERE ROTATED<\/em>] [If DOES NOT MATTER: <\/em>If you had to lean one way or the other would you pick the Republicans or the Democrats?]<\/span><\/p>\n
  TREND:<\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Early Oct.
2022<\/td>		Sept.
2022<\/td><\/tr>
Republicans <\/td>41%<\/strong><\/td>41%<\/td>40%<\/td><\/tr>
Not matter, but lean Rep<\/td>4%<\/strong><\/td>6%<\/td>7%<\/td><\/tr>
Democrats <\/td>42%<\/strong><\/td>42%<\/td>38%<\/td><\/tr>
Not matter, but lean Dem<\/td>6%<\/strong><\/td>6%<\/td>8%<\/td><\/tr>
Does not matter, no lean<\/td>3%<\/strong><\/td>3%<\/td>5%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>3%<\/strong><\/td>1%<\/td>1%<\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

2.<\/span>Is it very important, somewhat important, or only a little important to have [Republicans\/Democrats] in control of Congress? [CHOICE READ FROM Q1<\/em>]<\/span><\/p>\n
  TREND:<\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Early Oct.
2022<\/td>		Sept.
2022<\/td><\/tr>
Very important<\/td>73%<\/strong><\/td>69%<\/td>65%<\/td><\/tr>
Somewhat important<\/td>14%<\/strong><\/td>18%<\/td>18%<\/td><\/tr>
Only a little important <\/td>6%<\/strong><\/td>6%<\/td>8%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know \/ Does not matter who controls Congress (from Q1)<\/em><\/td>7%<\/strong><\/td>6%<\/td>8%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

3\/4.<\/span>I am going to read you a list of candidates running for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania this year.\u00a0 For each one, please tell me if you have definitely heard of them, not sure if you\u2019ve heard of them, or if you\u2019ve definitely not heard of them? [If DEFINITELY HEARD OF<\/em>:] Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of them? [NAMES WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/span><\/p>\n
      TREND:<\/td>
Very
favorable<\/td>
Somewhat
favorable<\/td>
Somewhat
unfavorable<\/td>
Very
unfavorable<\/td>		Heard of,
no opinion
(VOL)<\/td>
Not sure if
heard of<\/td>
Definitely
not heard of<\/td>

(n)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Mehmet Oz, the Republican<\/td>20%<\/strong><\/td>20%<\/strong><\/td>14%<\/strong><\/td>39%<\/strong><\/td>4%<\/strong><\/td>0%<\/strong><\/td>4%<\/strong><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
   — Early Oct. 2022<\/em><\/td>16%<\/em><\/td>20%<\/em><\/td>13%<\/em><\/td>40%<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td>0%<\/em><\/td>8%<\/em><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
   — Sept. 2022<\/em><\/td>16%<\/em><\/td>20%<\/em><\/td>12%<\/em><\/td>40%<\/em><\/td>2%<\/em><\/td>1%<\/em><\/td>9%<\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/em><\/td> <\/em><\/td> <\/em><\/td> <\/em><\/td> <\/em><\/td> <\/em><\/td> <\/em><\/td> <\/em><\/td> <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
John Fetterman, the Democrat<\/td>27%<\/strong><\/td>20%<\/strong><\/td>9%<\/strong><\/td>37%<\/strong><\/td>3%<\/strong><\/td>1%<\/strong><\/td>3%<\/strong><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
   — Early Oct. 2022<\/em><\/td>30%<\/em><\/td>18%<\/em><\/td>8%<\/em><\/td>36%<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td>2%<\/em><\/td>2%<\/em><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
   — Sept. 2022<\/em><\/td>29%<\/em><\/td>18%<\/em><\/td>11%<\/em><\/td>31%<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td>1%<\/em><\/td>7%<\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 5 & 6 WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5.<\/span>How likely are you to vote for Mehmet Oz in the election for U.S. Senate \u2013 will you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?<\/span><\/p>\n
TREND:<\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Early Oct.
2022<\/td>		Sept.
2022<\/td><\/tr>
Definitely<\/td>32%<\/strong><\/td>25%<\/td>23%<\/td><\/tr>
Probably<\/td>12%<\/strong><\/td>18%<\/td>16%<\/td><\/tr>
Probably not<\/td>9%<\/strong><\/td>8%<\/td>11%<\/td><\/tr>
Definitely not<\/td>45%<\/strong><\/td>46%<\/td>45%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>2%<\/strong><\/td>3%<\/td>5%<\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

6.<\/span>How likely are you to vote for John Fetterman in the election for U.S. Senate \u2013 will you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?<\/span><\/p>\n
TREND:<\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Early Oct.
2022<\/td>		Sept.
2022<\/td><\/tr>
Definitely<\/td>39%<\/strong><\/td>37%<\/td>32%<\/td><\/tr>
Probably<\/td>9%<\/strong><\/td>11%<\/td>17%<\/td><\/tr>
Probably not<\/td>5%<\/strong><\/td>7%<\/td>9%<\/td><\/tr>
Definitely not<\/td>44%<\/strong><\/td>40%<\/td>38%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>2%<\/strong><\/td>4%<\/td>4%<\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

7.<\/span>How likely are you to vote for one of the third party candidates running for U.S. Senate this year \u2013 will you definitely vote for one of them, probably vote for them, probably not vote for them, or definitely not vote for them?<\/span><\/p>\n
TREND:<\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Early Oct.
2022<\/td><\/tr>
Definitely<\/td>4%<\/strong><\/td>4%<\/td><\/tr>
Probably<\/td>10%<\/strong><\/td>13%<\/td><\/tr>
Probably not<\/td>20%<\/strong><\/td>31%<\/td><\/tr>
Definitely not<\/td>60%<\/strong><\/td>47%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>5%<\/strong><\/td>6%<\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 8 & 9 WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

8.<\/span>How much does Mehmet Oz understand the day to day concerns of people like you \u2013 a great deal, some, not much, or not at all?<\/span><\/p>\n
   TREND:<\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Early Oct.
2022<\/td><\/tr>
Great deal<\/td>19%<\/strong><\/td>15%<\/td><\/tr>
Some<\/td>23%<\/strong><\/td>24%<\/td><\/tr>
Not much<\/td>20%<\/strong><\/td>21%<\/td><\/tr>
Not at all<\/td>35%<\/strong><\/td>37%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>3%<\/strong><\/td>4%<\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

9.<\/span>How much does John Fetterman understand the day to day concerns of people like you \u2013 a great deal, some, not much, or not at all?<\/span><\/p>\n
   TREND:<\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Early Oct.
2022<\/td><\/tr>
Great deal<\/td>30%<\/strong><\/td>34%<\/td><\/tr>
Some<\/td>25%<\/strong><\/td>23%<\/td><\/tr>
Not much<\/td>11%<\/strong><\/td>10%<\/td><\/tr>
Not at all<\/td>30%<\/strong><\/td>28%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>3%<\/strong><\/td>4%<\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

10.<\/span>Who do you trust more on [READ ITEM<\/em>] \u2013 Mehmet Oz, John Fetterman, both equally, or neither one?\u00a0 [ITEMS WERE ROTATED<\/em>] [NAMES WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
   TREND:<\/td>Mehmet
Oz<\/td>		John
Fetterman<\/td>		Both
equally<\/td>		Neither
 one<\/td>		(VOL) Don\u2019t
know<\/td>
(n)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Immigration<\/td>41%<\/strong><\/td>37%<\/strong><\/td>5%<\/strong><\/td>13%<\/strong><\/td>5%<\/strong><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
   — Early Oct. 2022<\/em><\/td>37%<\/em><\/td>41%<\/em><\/td>5%<\/em><\/td>14%<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
   — Sept. 2022<\/em><\/td>34%<\/em><\/td>34%<\/em><\/td>4%<\/em><\/td>21%<\/em><\/td>7%<\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Gun control<\/td>36%<\/strong><\/td>41%<\/strong><\/td>4%<\/strong><\/td>15%<\/strong><\/td>5%<\/strong><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
   — Early Oct. 2022<\/em><\/td>33%<\/em><\/td>43%<\/em><\/td>4%<\/em><\/td>16%<\/em><\/td>4%<\/em><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
   — Sept. 2022<\/em><\/td>30%<\/em><\/em><\/td>40%<\/em><\/em><\/td>4%<\/em><\/em><\/td>19%<\/em><\/em><\/td>7%<\/em><\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Abortion<\/td>34%<\/strong><\/td>47%<\/strong><\/td>3%<\/strong><\/td>13%<\/strong><\/td>3%<\/strong><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
   — Early Oct. 2022<\/em><\/td>29%<\/em><\/td>48%<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td>16%<\/em><\/td>5%<\/em><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
   — Sept. 2022<\/em><\/td>26%<\/em><\/em><\/td>44%<\/em><\/em><\/td>2%<\/em><\/em><\/td>21%<\/em><\/em><\/td>7%<\/em><\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Jobs, the economy and cost of living<\/td>38%<\/strong><\/td>46%<\/strong><\/td>3%<\/strong><\/td>12%<\/strong><\/td>2%<\/strong><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
   — Early Oct. 2022<\/em><\/td>36%<\/em><\/td>45%<\/em><\/td>5%<\/em><\/td>12%<\/em><\/td>2%<\/em><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
   — Sept. 2022<\/em><\/td>36%<\/em><\/em><\/td>41%<\/em><\/em><\/td>4%<\/em><\/em><\/td>16%<\/em><\/em><\/td>4%<\/em><\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Defending your values<\/td>38%<\/strong><\/td>43%<\/strong><\/td>4%<\/strong><\/td>13%<\/strong><\/td>1%<\/strong><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
   — Early Oct. 2022<\/em><\/td>34%<\/em><\/td>44%<\/em><\/td>4%<\/em><\/td>16%<\/em><\/td>2%<\/em><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
   — Sept. 2022<\/em><\/td>34%<\/em><\/em><\/td>43%<\/em><\/em><\/td>2%<\/em><\/em><\/td>17%<\/em><\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Crime<\/td>42%<\/strong><\/td>42%<\/strong><\/td>5%<\/strong><\/td>10%<\/strong><\/td>1%<\/strong><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
   — Early Oct. 2022<\/em><\/td>38%<\/em><\/td>45%<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td>11%<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Elections and voting processes<\/td>34%<\/strong><\/td>43%<\/strong><\/td>8%<\/strong><\/td>12%<\/strong><\/td>4%<\/strong><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
   — Early Oct. 2022<\/em><\/td>34%<\/em><\/td>44%<\/em><\/td>7%<\/em><\/td>13%<\/em><\/td>2%<\/em><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/strong><\/td> <\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q11-18 held for future release.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

19.<\/span>How motivated are you to vote in this year\u2019s election \u2013 extremely motivated, very motivated, somewhat motivated, or not motivated?<\/span><\/p>\n
    TREND:<\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Early Oct.
2022<\/td>		Sept.
2022<\/td><\/tr>
Extremely motivated<\/td>66%<\/strong><\/td>70%<\/td>64%<\/td><\/tr>
Very motivated<\/td>19%<\/strong><\/td>17%<\/td>21%<\/td><\/tr>
Somewhat motivated<\/td>10%<\/strong><\/td>11%<\/td>10%<\/td><\/tr>
Not motivated<\/td>4%<\/strong><\/td>2%<\/td>4%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>0%<\/strong><\/td>0%<\/td>1%<\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

20.<\/span>Compared to past elections for U.S. Senate and Congress, are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as past elections?<\/span><\/p>\n
    TREND:<\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Early Oct.
2022<\/td>		Sept.
2022<\/td><\/tr>
More enthusiastic<\/td>46%<\/strong><\/td>44%<\/td>42%<\/td><\/tr>
Less enthusiastic<\/td>12%<\/strong><\/td>10%<\/td>10%<\/td><\/tr>
About the same<\/td>42%<\/strong><\/td>46%<\/td>48%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>1%<\/strong><\/td>0%<\/td>1%<\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td>(605)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q21 held for future release.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

22.<\/span>Have you already voted in the upcoming general election, or not? [If ALREADY VOTED<\/em>:] How did you vote this year \u2013 in person at an early voting location or by mail ballot? [IF NOT VOTED YET:<\/em>] How will you vote this year \u2013 in person on Election Day, in person at an early voting location, by mail ballot, or won\u2019t you vote at all?<\/span><\/p>\n
   TREND:<\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Early Oct.
2022<\/td><\/tr>
Will vote in person on Election Day<\/td>72%<\/strong><\/td>75%<\/td><\/tr>
Already voted in person<\/td>2%<\/strong><\/td>n\/a<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Will vote in person early<\/td>2%<\/strong><\/td>2%<\/td><\/tr>
Already voted by mail<\/td>17%<\/strong><\/td>n\/a<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Will vote by mail<\/td>5%<\/strong><\/td>21%<\/td><\/tr>
Won\u2019t vote at all<\/td>1%<\/strong><\/td>1%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>0%<\/strong><\/td>1%<\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td>(610)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 23 & 24 WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

23.<\/span>Would you say Mehmet Oz is capable of effectively serving a six year term as senator, or not?<\/span><\/p>\n
 <\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Yes, is capable<\/td>59%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
No, is not<\/td>39%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>2%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

24.<\/span>Would you say John Fetterman is capable of effectively serving a six year term as senator, or not?<\/span><\/p>\n
 <\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Yes, is capable<\/td>48%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
No, is not<\/td>49%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>3%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

25.<\/span>Have you seen or heard anything about John Fetterman having trouble speaking in public, or have you not heard anything about this?<\/span><\/p>\n
 <\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Yes, heard<\/td>88%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
No, not heard <\/td>12%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

26.<\/span>Fetterman says his speaking problems are the result of a stroke and they do not affect his ability to think or carry out his job. Do you tend to believe Fetterman\u2019s description of his condition, or not?<\/span><\/p>\n
 <\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Yes, believe<\/td>48%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
No, not believe<\/td>38%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>3%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not aware  (from Q25)<\/em><\/td>12%<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

27.<\/span>Did you see or hear any part of Tuesday\u2019s televised debate between Fetterman and Oz? [If YES:<\/em>] Did what you see or hear cause you to reconsider who you might support in this election, give you serious concerns but not change your mind about your vote, or not give you serious concerns?<\/span><\/p>\n
 <\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Yes, reconsider support<\/td>3%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Yes, serious concern, but not change vote<\/td>22%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Yes, not serious concern<\/td>46%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>1%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Did not see\/hear debate<\/td>27%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

28.<\/span>Do you feel John Fetterman has been transparent about his current health status, or not?<\/span><\/p>\n
 <\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Transparent<\/td>50%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not<\/td>41%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>8%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

29.<\/span>Do you think the media coverage of Fetterman\u2019s health has been too much, the right amount, or not enough?<\/span><\/p>\n
 <\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Too much<\/td>31%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Right amount<\/td>29%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not enough<\/td>29%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>10%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

30.<\/span>Have you personally known someone who suffered from a stroke and had similar problems to Fetterman\u2019s, or have you not personally known someone in this situation?<\/span><\/p>\n
 <\/td>Late Oct.
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Yes<\/td>72%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
No<\/td>23%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>5%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(608)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

METHODOLOGY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em> was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 27 to 31, 2022 with a probability-based random sample of 608 Pennsylvania voters drawn from a list of active registered voters who participated in at least one general election since 2016 or have newly registered since the 2020 election. This includes 182 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 426 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for party registration, age, gender, race, education, and region based on state voter registration list information and U.S. Census information (CPS 2018 supplement). Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points (adjusted for sample design effects). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
REGISTERED VOTERS<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Party Registration<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
42% Republican<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
14% Other\/none<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
44% Democrat<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Self-Reported Party<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
37% Republican<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
27% Independent<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
36% Democrat<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
48% Male<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
52% Female<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
21% 18-34<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
22% 35-49<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
29% 50-64<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
28% 65+<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
83% White, non-Hispanic<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
10% Black<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
  5% Hispanic<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
  2% Asian\/other<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
63% No degree<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
37% 4 year degree<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Voters divided on Dem\u2019s ability to serve, but few reconsider support after debate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":40802253543,"template":"","geography":[36],"class_list":["post-40802253531","poll","type-poll","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","geography-pennsylvania"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802253531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/poll"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802253531\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802253552,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802253531\/revisions\/40802253552"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40802253543"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802253531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"geography","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/geography?post=40802253531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}