{"id":40802251598,"date":"2022-04-07T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-07T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/?post_type=poll&p=40802251598"},"modified":"2022-04-06T16:18:45","modified_gmt":"2022-04-06T20:18:45","slug":"monmouthpoll_nj_040722","status":"publish","type":"poll","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_nj_040722\/","title":{"rendered":"Democrats Preferred in Midterms Despite Biden\u2019s Poor Ratings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

West Long Branch, NJ<\/em> \u2013 New Jerseyans prefer to keep Democrats in control of Congress, but it\u2019s not a large enough edge to avoid the possibility of some close contests this November. The Monmouth (\u201cMon-muth\u201d) University Poll<\/em><\/strong> finds that public opinion of President Joe Biden continues to be underwater while ratings for the state\u2019s Democratic U.S. senators remain positive. Democrats support a bid to make the Garden State one of the nation\u2019s first presidential primaries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just over half of New Jerseyans either prefer (43%) or lean toward (9%) keeping the Democrats in power in Congress. About 4 in 10 want to switch to Republican control (34% prefer and 7% lean). A national Monmouth poll conducted last month<\/a> produced a more divided result (46% of Americans wanted Democratic control and 45% wanted Republican control).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current findings are in line with a similar question Monmouth asked New Jersey voters in April 2020, when 50% indicated they would support the Democratic candidate for Congress and 38% would back the Republican. Democratic House candidates ended up with a 15-point edge in the cumulative statewide vote that year, although 5 of the state\u2019s 12 districts had margins of 8 points or less.  Back in the 2018 midterm election, Democrats held a 19-point advantage in Monmouth\u2019s April polling (54% to 35%) and ended up with a 21-point margin in the final statewide vote tally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s important to keep in mind that we are measuring leadership preference rather than vote intention with this question. Still, these results suggest that we could see a similar turnout pattern to two years ago. That means there should be some close House races, depending on how the president is doing in the fall and the impact of redistricting,\u201d said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Currently, Biden has a net negative job rating of 45% approve to 50% disapprove in New Jersey, a state he won by 16 points in 2020. The president\u2019s rating was positive into last summer, but dropped significantly right before last year\u2019s gubernatorial election. Among Black, Latino, and Asian residents, Biden holds a 51% approve to 40% disapprove rating.  Last May, he had a much larger 69% to 24% positive margin with this group. His current rating among white New Jerseyans is a negative 42% approve to 56% disapprove (compared with 45% to 50% in May 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Jersey opinion of the president\u2019s job performance is lower than ratings given to other Democratic officeholders. Specifically, Sen. Cory Booker has a 53% approve to 32% disapprove rating and Sen. Bob Menendez has a 42% approve to 38% disapprove rating. In a Monmouth poll released yesterday<\/a>, Gov. Phil Murphy holds a 55% approve to 35% disapprove rating. Unlike Biden, the current ratings for these three officeholders are similar to public opinion of their job performance one year ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNew Jersey is fundamentally a blue state.  The fact that Biden is doing so poorly here suggests he has lost enthusiasm among core constituencies in his own base,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The poll also asked New Jerseyans about moving up the state\u2019s presidential primary in 2024. Just over half (52%) support shifting the primary from June to February to become among the first in the nation, while 34% are opposed to this move. Most Democrats (60%) and independents (53%) support this idea, but fewer Republicans (39%) back it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA shake-up of the nation\u2019s presidential primary calendar is long overdue. New Jersey\u2019s Democratic leadership has put in a bid to be among the first contests and most of the party\u2019s rank-and-file are on board with that,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em> was conducted by telephone from March 31 to April 4, 2022 with 802 New Jersey adults.  The question results in this release have a margin of error of +\/- 3.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Q1 held for future release.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Q2-3 previously released.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4.<\/span>Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president?<\/span><\/p>\n
All adults<\/em><\/em><\/td>April
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Approve<\/td>45%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Disapprove<\/td>50%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) No opinion<\/td>5%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
   (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(802)<\/em><\/strong>
<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n
TREND: Registered voters<\/em><\/em><\/td>April
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Oct.
2021<\/td>		Aug.
2021<\/td>		May
2021<\/td><\/tr>
Approve<\/td>47%<\/strong><\/td>43%<\/td>51%<\/td>55%<\/td><\/tr>
Disapprove<\/td>49%<\/strong><\/td>49%<\/td>41%<\/td>40%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) No opinion<\/td>4%<\/strong><\/td>8%<\/td>9%<\/td>5%<\/td><\/tr>
   (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(738)<\/em><\/strong><\/td>(1,000)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(810)<\/em><\/td>(661)<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 5 & 6 WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5.<\/span>Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bob Menendez is doing as United States Senator?<\/span><\/p>\n
All adults<\/em><\/em><\/td>April
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Approve<\/td>42%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Disapprove<\/td>38%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) No opinion<\/td>20%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
   (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(802)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n
TREND: Registered voters<\/em><\/td>April
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Sept.
2021<\/td>		May
2021<\/td>		April
2020<\/td>		Sept.
2019<\/td>		Feb.
2019<\/td><\/tr>
 Approve<\/td>44%<\/strong><\/td>43%<\/td>46%<\/td>44%<\/td>37%<\/td>40%<\/td><\/tr>
Disapprove<\/td>39%<\/strong><\/td>35%<\/td>38%<\/td>38%<\/td>45%<\/td>45%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) No opinion<\/td>17%<\/strong><\/td>22%<\/td>16%<\/td>18%<\/td>18%<\/td>15%<\/td><\/tr>
   (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(738)<\/em><\/strong><\/td>(804)<\/em><\/td>(661)<\/em><\/td>(635)<\/em><\/td>(651)<\/em><\/td>(549)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n
TREND: Registered voters <\/em>continued<\/em><\/td>April
2018<\/td>		July
2017<\/td>		May
2016<\/td>		July
2015<\/td>		May
2015<\/td>		Feb.
2015<\/td>		Sept.
2014<\/td>		June
2014<\/td>		April
2014<\/td>		Feb.
2014<\/td>		Dec.
2013<\/td>		April
2013<\/td>		Feb.
2013<\/td><\/tr>
Approve<\/td>37%<\/td>41%<\/td>41%<\/td>38%<\/td>42%<\/td>49%<\/td>45%<\/td>47%<\/td>51%<\/td>49%<\/td>47%<\/td>44%<\/td>41%<\/td><\/tr>
Disapprove<\/td>38%<\/td>35%<\/td>31%<\/td>38%<\/td>38%<\/td>27%<\/td>30%<\/td>34%<\/td>31%<\/td>30%<\/td>27%<\/td>38%<\/td>31%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) No opinion<\/td>25%<\/td>23%<\/td>28%<\/td>23%<\/td>20%<\/td>24%<\/td>26%<\/td>19%<\/td>18%<\/td>21%<\/td>26%<\/td>18%<\/td>28%<\/td><\/tr>
   (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(632)<\/em><\/td>(758)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(703)<\/em><\/td>(453)<\/em><\/td>(441)<\/em><\/td>(712)<\/em><\/td>(680<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(717<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(<\/em>690<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(<\/em>690<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(<\/em>698<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(<\/em>694<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(697<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
TREND: Registered voters <\/em>continued<\/em><\/td>April
2012<\/td>		Feb.
2012<\/td>		Oct.
2011<\/td>		Aug.
2011<\/td>		May
2011<\/td>		July
2010<\/td>		Oct.
2008<\/td>		April
2008<\/td>		Jan.
2008<\/td><\/tr>
Approve<\/td>40%<\/td>41%<\/td>43%<\/td>38%<\/td>46%<\/td>38%<\/td>34%<\/td>41%<\/td>37%<\/td><\/tr>
Disapprove<\/td>25%<\/td>26%<\/td>29%<\/td>33%<\/td>28%<\/td>33%<\/td>25%<\/td>31%<\/td>25%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) No opinion<\/td>35%<\/td>33%<\/td>28%<\/td>29%<\/td>26%<\/td>29%<\/td>41%<\/td>28%<\/td>37%<\/td><\/tr>
   (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(692<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(709<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(693<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(<\/em>730<\/em>)<\/em><\/td>(725<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(<\/em>747)<\/em><\/td>(<\/em>900)<\/em><\/td>(<\/em>720)<\/em><\/td>(<\/em>698)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

6.<\/span>Do you approve or disapprove of the job Cory Booker is doing as United States Senator?<\/span><\/p>\n
All adults<\/em><\/em><\/td>April
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Approve<\/td>53%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Disapprove<\/td>32%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) No opinion<\/td>15%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
   (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(802)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n
TREND: Registered voters<\/em><\/td>April
2022<\/strong><\/td>		Sept.
2021<\/td>		May
2021<\/td>		April
2020<\/td>		Sept.
2019<\/td>		Feb.
2019<\/td><\/tr>
Approve<\/td>55%<\/strong><\/td>51%<\/td>57%<\/td>51%<\/td>45%<\/td>48%<\/td><\/tr>
Disapprove<\/td>33%<\/strong><\/td>32%<\/td>36%<\/td>34%<\/td>40%<\/td>38%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) No opinion<\/td>12%<\/strong><\/td>17%<\/td>6%<\/td>14%<\/td>16%<\/td>14%<\/td><\/tr>
   (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(738)<\/em><\/strong><\/td>(804)<\/em><\/td>(661)<\/em><\/td>(635)<\/em><\/td>(651)<\/em><\/td>(549)<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n
TREND: Registered voters<\/em><\/td>April
2018<\/td>		July
2017<\/td>		May
2016<\/td>		July
2015<\/td>		May
2015<\/td>		Feb.
2015<\/td>		Sept.
2014<\/td>		June
2014<\/td>		April
2014<\/td>		Feb.
2014<\/td>		Dec.
2013<\/td><\/tr>
Approve<\/td>54%<\/td>50%<\/td>53%<\/td>45%<\/td>51%<\/td>51%<\/td>42%<\/td>48%<\/td>47%<\/td>47%<\/td>37%<\/td><\/tr>
Disapprove<\/td>31%<\/td>31%<\/td>21%<\/td>24%<\/td>21%<\/td>21%<\/td>23%<\/td>25%<\/td>23%<\/td>20%<\/td>21%<\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) No opinion<\/td>15%<\/td>20%<\/td>27%<\/td>31%<\/td>27%<\/td>27%<\/td>35%<\/td>27%<\/td>30%<\/td>32%<\/td>43%<\/td><\/tr>
   (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(632)<\/em><\/td>(758)<\/em><\/td>(703<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(453<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(441<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(712<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(680<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(717<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(690<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(690<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(<\/em>698<\/em>)<\/em><\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

7.<\/span>Looking ahead to this year\u2019s midterm elections, would you rather see the Republicans or the Democrats in control of Congress, or doesn\u2019t this matter to you? [CHOICES WERE ROTATED<\/em>] [If DOES NOT MATTER: <\/em>If you had to lean one way or the other would you pick the Republicans or the Democrats?]<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
 <\/td>April
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Republicans <\/td>34%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not matter, but lean Rep<\/td>7%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Democrats <\/td>43%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Not matter, but lean Dem<\/td>9%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Does not matter, no lean<\/td>6%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>0%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(802)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

8.<\/span>Some New Jersey leaders are looking to move the state\u2019s presidential primary election in 2024 from June to February in order to be one of the first primaries in the nation.\u00a0 Do you support or oppose moving up New Jersey\u2019s presidential primary to be among the first in the nation?<\/span><\/p>\n
 <\/td>April
2022<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Support <\/td>52%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Oppose<\/td>34%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td>14%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (n)<\/em><\/em><\/td>(802)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q9-14 previously released.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Q15-45 held for future release.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

METHODOLOGY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em> was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from March 31 to April 4, 2022 with a probability-based random sample of 802 New Jersey adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 280 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 522 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2018 one-year survey). Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample).  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NJ Regions (by county)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North<\/em> \u2013 Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Union, Warren<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central<\/em> \u2013 Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Somerset<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South<\/em> \u2013 Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Ocean, Salem<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Self-Reported<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
24% Republican<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
40% Independent<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
36% Democrat<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
49% Male<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
51% Female<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
28% 18-34<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
34% 35-54<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
38% 55+<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
58% White<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
12% Black<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
19% Hispanic<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
11% Asian\/Other<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
 <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
61% No degree<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
39% 4 year degree<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Booker, Menendez ratings stable; Dem voters want to move up presidential primary <\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":40802251603,"template":"","geography":[30],"class_list":["post-40802251598","poll","type-poll","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","geography-new-jersey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802251598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/poll"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802251598\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802251639,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802251598\/revisions\/40802251639"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40802251603"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802251598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"geography","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/geography?post=40802251598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}