{"id":40802245706,"date":"2020-02-20T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-20T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/?post_type=poll&p=40802245706"},"modified":"2020-02-20T11:18:39","modified_gmt":"2020-02-20T16:18:39","slug":"monmouthpoll_ca_022020","status":"publish","type":"poll","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_ca_022020\/","title":{"rendered":"Sanders Leads with One-Quarter of Vote"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

West Long Branch, NJ<\/em> \u2013\nBernie Sanders leads the field in California\u2019s Super Tuesday primary, despite\nthe fact that only 1 in 4 likely voters currently support him. The Monmouth\n<\/em><\/strong>(\u201cMon-muth\u201d)\n<\/em><\/strong>University Poll<\/em><\/strong> finds that Sanders\u2019 vote share could increase, though, if it came down\nto a two-person race. Latino voters are a core constituency for Sanders in the\nGolden State. With early ballots already rolling in, few voters say there is a\nhigh possibility they will change their candidate choice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among\nCalifornia voters who are likely to participate in the March 3 Democratic\nprimary, support currently stands at 24% for Sanders, followed by 17% for Joe\nBiden, 13% for Mike Bloomberg, 10% for Elizabeth Warren, and 9% for Pete\nButtigieg. Support for other candidates includes Tom Steyer at 5%, Amy\nKlobuchar at 4%, and Tulsi Gabbard at 2%. Another 13% of likely primary voters\nremain undecided and do not lean toward any candidate at this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCalifornia\nis the big prize on Super Tuesday. As the poll currently stands, it\u2019s possible\nthat only two or three candidates reach viability in any given congressional\ndistrict. That would enable Sanders to rack up half the delegates or more while\nonly earning one-quarter of the total vote,\u201d said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University\nPolling Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 1\nin 3 voters under 50 years old prefer Sanders (36%), followed by Warren (15%),\nwhile those aged 65 and over give an edge to Biden (29%) over Bloomberg (14%)\nand Sanders (12%). Hispanic voters favor Sanders (38%) over Biden (17%).\nNon-Hispanic white voters are divided between Sanders (18%) and Warren (18%),\nfollowed by Bloomberg (14%), Biden (13%), and Buttigieg (11%). Voters of other\nracial backgrounds, including black and Asian voters, prefer Biden (32%) over\nSanders (17%) and Bloomberg (17%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere is a\nhigh level of interest in voting in this primary, suggesting there could be\nrecord turnout. If this pans out, it is likely to include a relatively high\nshare of Latino voters, a group that is particularly friendly to Sanders,\u201d said\nMurray. The survey findings are based on\na likely voter screen that results in an electorate that is 49% non-Hispanic\nwhite, 31% Hispanic, 11% black, and 7% Asian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 6\nin 10 California primary voters will cast their ballots early. Among those who\nhave already voted or intend to vote prior to Super Tuesday, the race is close\n\u2013 with 20% backing Sanders, 19% Biden, 14% Bloomberg, 11% Warren, and 11%\nButtigieg. Sanders has a clear lead among the one-third of likely voters who\nintend to go to their polling places on March 3. He gets 28% of the primary day\nvote, compared to 14% for Biden, 13% for Bloomberg, and 10% for Warren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About 4 in\n10 likely California Democratic primary voters are set on their candidate\nchoice, including 10% who have already mailed in their ballot and 31% who say\nthey have not voted yet but are firmly decided. Just under half of likely\nvoters are open to supporting a different candidate than their current choice,\nbut only 10% say there is a high possibility this will happen. Another 26% say\nthere is a moderate possibility of changing their mind and 9% say there is a\nlow possibility. The results out of Iowa and New Hampshire had little impact on\nhow California voters are viewing this race. More than 3 in 4 say the outcomes\nof those contests did not really change their thinking about the upcoming\nprimary (68%) or they have already voted (10%). Among the small number who say\nthey took a second look at the field because of the first two states, just\nunder half changed their mind about whom to support (8%) and just over half did\nnot (10%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The poll\nasked voters how they would vote in hypothetical two-person races pitting\nSanders against the more moderate candidates. Support for Sanders grows in each\nof these matchups, beating out Biden (44% to 36%), Bloomberg (48% to 31%),\nButtigieg (51% to 26%), and Klobuchar (54% to 24%). In these head-to-head\nscenarios, Sanders\u2019 support among voters under 50 years old grows to about\ntwo-thirds in that group. He also gets an outright majority of the Hispanic\nvote in all four hypothetical contests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSanders\nmay get a decent delegate haul in the currently crowded field. But if it comes\ndown to a two-person contest in California, Sanders could rack up two-thirds of\navailable delegates and be well on his way to the nomination,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like\nDemocrats elsewhere, California primary voters are looking for electability \u2013\n63% say beating Trump is more important to their vote than lining up with a\ncandidate on any policy issue. Another 21% say electability is as important as\ntheir top policy concern, while just 13% say it is less important than issue\nalignment. Among those who say beating Trump is their top priority, 21% support\nSanders, 21% support Biden, 17% support Bloomberg, and 11% support Warren. Among\nthose who say it is not a top priority, 31% support Sanders and 11% back\nButtigieg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at candidate qualities, 61% of likely Democratic primary voters say they want someone who can unite the country, while 32% say they prefer someone who can bring about change. One-third of \u201cchange\u201d voters back Sanders (32%), followed by Biden (17%), Bloomberg (12%), and Warren (12%). Sanders (19%) ties with Biden (19%) among \u201cunite\u201d voters, ahead of Bloomberg (15%), and Buttigieg (12%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

California Democratic primary voters tend to be hopeful about their\neventual nominee\u2019s chances in November. \nMost (55%) believe that Trump will lose to the Democrat while 35% think\nit is more likely that Trump will win reelection. More than 6 in 10 likely\nprimary voters feel optimistic about this year\u2019s election (31% very and 31%\nsomewhat), while 3 in 10 are pessimistic (12% very and 19% somewhat). Hispanic\nvoters (80%) are more likely than non-Hispanic white voters (49%) to feel\noptimistic about the 2020 election. Optimism among those of other racial\nbackgrounds, including black and Asian voters, (62%) falls in between these two\ngroups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em> was conducted by telephone from February 16 to 19, 2020 with 408 California voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary on\u00a0March 3, 2020, out of 570 registered voters that were contacted for the poll.\u00a0The question results in this release have a margin of error of +\/- 4.9 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS                                                                         <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due\nto rounding.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.<\/span> If the Democratic primary election for president was today, would you vote for [NAMES WERE ROTATED<\/em>]?\u00a0 [If UNDECIDED:<\/em> If you had to vote for one of these candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward?]<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  (with leaners)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td>\n 24%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Joe Biden\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Mike Bloomberg\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Elizabeth Warren\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Pete Buttigieg\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Tom Steyer\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Amy Klobuchar\n <\/td>\n 4%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Tulsi Gabbard\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Other\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Undecided\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (408)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

2.<\/span> Are you firmly decided on your candidate choice or are you open to the possibility of voting for a different candidate on primary day?\u00a0 [If OPEN<\/em>: <\/strong>Would you rate the possibility of supporting a different candidate as high, moderate, or low?]<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Firmly\n decided\n <\/td>\n 31%<\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Open to different \n candidate \u2026\n <\/td>\n high possibility\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n moderate possibility\n <\/td>\n 26%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n low possibility\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don’t know\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No\n first choice (from Q1)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (408)<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

3.<\/span> Who would be your second choice if you had to make one?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td>\n 16%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Joe Biden\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Elizabeth Warren\n <\/td>\n 12%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Mike Bloomberg\n <\/td>\n 8%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Pete Buttigieg\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Amy Klobuchar\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Tom Steyer\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Tulsi Gabbard\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) No one\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Undecided\n <\/td>\n 23%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (408)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

4.<\/span> Did the results of the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses make you take a second look at any of the candidates, or did this not really change your thinking about who you will support in the primary?\u00a0 [If TOOK A SECOND LOOK:<\/em> <\/strong>Did you actually change your mind about who to support or not?]<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Took a second look, and\u2026\n <\/td>\n changed mind\n <\/td>\n 8%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n did not change mind\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not really change thinking\n <\/td>\n 68%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don’t know\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (408)<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

5.<\/span> I am going to read you a few pairs of candidate names. If the Democratic nomination came down to just these two candidates by the California primary, who would you vote for? [CANDIDATE PAIRS WERE ROTATED AND<\/em> NAMES WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/span><\/p>\n

Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td>\n 44%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Joe Biden\n <\/td>\n 36%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Neither \n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (408)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td>\n 51%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Pete Buttigieg\n <\/td>\n 26%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Neither\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (408)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td>\n 54%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Amy Klobuchar\n <\/td>\n 24%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Neither\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (408)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td>\n 48%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Mike Bloomberg\n <\/td>\n 31%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Neither\n <\/td>\n 4%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (408)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

6.<\/span> When thinking about who you are supporting in the Democratic primary, how much of a factor is beating Donald Trump next November \u2013 is it more important than any policy issue you are concerned with, about as important as your top policy concern, or less important than your top policy concern?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n More important\n <\/td>\n 63%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n About as important\n <\/td>\n 21%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Less important\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don’t know\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (408)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

7.<\/span> If you had to choose, are you more concerned about choosing a candidate who can bring about change or a candidate who can unite the country?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bring about change\n <\/td>\n 32%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Unite the country\n <\/td>\n 61%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Neither\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don’t know\n <\/td>\n 4%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (408)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

8.<\/span> Do you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the 2020 presidential election?\u00a0 [Is that very or somewhat optimistic\/pessimistic?]<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Very optimistic\n <\/td>\n 31%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Somewhat optimistic\n <\/td>\n 31%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Somewhat pessimistic\n <\/td>\n 19%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Very pessimistic\n <\/td>\n 12%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Neither, don\u2019t care\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (408)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

9.<\/span> As of right now, what do you think the chances are that Donald Trump gets reelected in November \u2013 do you think he will definitely get reelected, probably get reelected, probably lose to the Democrat, or definitely lose to the Democrat?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Definitely get reelected\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Probably get reelected\n <\/td>\n 28%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Probably lose to the\n Democrat\n <\/td>\n 37%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Definitely lose to the Democrat\n <\/td>\n 18%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Depends on the Democrat\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (408)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

METHODOLOGY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth\nUniversity Poll<\/em> was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University\nPolling Institute from February 16 to 19, 2020 with\na statewide random sample of 570 California voters drawn from a list of voters\nregistered as Democrats or with no party affiliation who participated in a\nprimary or general election in the 2016 or 2018 election cycles, or have\nregistered to vote since November 2018. This includes 144 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline\ntelephone and 426 contacted by a live\ninterviewer on a cell phone, in English and Spanish. Results are based on 408 voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic\npresidential primary on March 3, 2020.  Monmouth is responsible for\nall aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample\nis weighted for party registration, age, gender, race, education and region\nbased on state voter registration list information and U.S. Census information\n(CPS 2018 supplement). Data collection support provided by Braun Research\n(field) and Aristotle (voter sample). For results based on the sample of likely\nDemocratic primary voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the error\nattributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage\npoints (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for\nsub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should\nbear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting\nsurveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Party Registration<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 77%\n Democrat<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 23%\n None<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Self-Reported Party<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 73%\n Democrat<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 24%\n Independent<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n   3% Republican<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 44% Male<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 56%\n Female<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 18% 18-34<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 20% 35-49<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 35% 50-64<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 27% 65+<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 49% White, non-Hispanic<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 11% Black<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 31% Hispanic<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n   7% Asian <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n   1% Other<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 52% No degree<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 48% 4 year degree<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Region<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 25% LA area<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 24% South<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 13% Central<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 38% North<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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