{"id":40802245679,"date":"2020-02-18T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/?post_type=poll&p=40802245679"},"modified":"2020-02-17T19:16:12","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T00:16:12","slug":"monmouthpoll_va_021820","status":"publish","type":"poll","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_va_021820\/","title":{"rendered":"Only 1 In 4 Voters Firm About Choice"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

West Long Branch, NJ<\/em> \u2013\nMike Bloomberg, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden top the field in Virginia, one of\nthe states that holds their Democratic presidential primary on Super Tuesday.\nThe Monmouth\n<\/em><\/strong>(\u201cMon-muth\u201d) <\/em><\/strong>University\nPoll<\/em><\/strong> finds that most voters\nprioritize someone who can beat President Donald Trump and unite the country,\nbut few seem to be firmly decided on who that candidate is. In hypothetical\nhead-to-head contests between Sanders and four moderate contenders, the senator\nfrom Vermont wins half the time and loses half the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among\nVirginia voters who are likely to participate in the Democratic primary on\nMarch 3, support currently stands at 22% for Bloomberg, 22% for Sanders, and\n18% for Biden. They are trailed by Pete Buttigieg (11%), Amy Klobuchar (9%),\nand Elizabeth Warren (5%). Another 11% of likely primary voters remain\nundecided and do not lean toward any candidate at this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Virginia\ndoes not have party registration and any voter may participate in the primary.\nAmong those who identify themselves as Democrats, Sanders (22%), Biden (21%),\nand Bloomberg (20%) are on equal footing. Other candidates get less support\namong self-identified Democrats, including Buttigieg (13%), Klobuchar (7%), and\nWarren (6%). Among those who call themselves independents (plus a small number\nof self-identified Republicans), Bloomberg (25%) and Sanders (23%) share the\nlead, followed by Biden (13%), Klobuchar (13%), and Buttigieg (8%), with Warren\ngetting only 2%. White voters are split between Bloomberg (25%) and Sanders\n(23%), while Biden leads among black voters (37%). One-third of voters under 50\nyears old prefer Sanders (35%), while a similar number of those aged 65 and\nover back Bloomberg (32%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cVirginia\nprovides an interesting test on Super Tuesday. A wide range of candidates\nappeal to voters here and it is very much a jump ball at this point,\u201d said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University\nPolling Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just 1 in 4\n(25%) likely Virginia Democratic primary voters are firmly set on their\ncandidate choice (and another 1% have already voted absentee). Most are open to\nvoting for a different candidate on March 3, with 18% saying there is a high\npossibility of this happening, 34% saying this is a moderate possibility and\n10% saying this is a low possibility. The results out of Iowa and New Hampshire\nhad little impact on how Virginia voters are viewing this race. Fully 81% said\nthe outcomes of those contests did not really change their thinking about the\nupcoming primary. Among the small number who said they took a second look at\nthe field because of the first two states, just under half said they changed\ntheir mind about whom to support (7%) and just over half said they did not\n(11%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The poll\nasked voters how they would vote in a hypothetical two-person race pitting\nSanders against one of the more moderate candidates. In these scenarios,\nSanders edges past both Klobuchar (45% to 42%) and Buttigieg (44% to 42%) but\ncomes out on the losing end against Bloomberg (41% to 47%) and by an even wider\nmargin against Biden (38% to 51%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a\nSanders versus Biden matchup, the former vice president has a small lead among\nwhite voters (49% Biden to 40% Sanders) and an even wider lead among black\nvoters (63% to 27%). In a Sanders versus Bloomberg matchup, the white voter gap\nis about the same as for Biden (50% Bloomberg to 39% Sanders), while Sanders\nhas a slight lead among black voters (43% Bloomberg to 49% Sanders). Men are\nsplit on Biden (48%) and Sanders (42%), while Biden wins among women (54% to\n35%). Against Bloomberg, the race is somewhat closer among women (46% Bloomberg\nto 42% Sanders) than it is among men (49% Bloomberg to 39% Sanders).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Sanders\nversus either Klobuchar or Buttigieg, Sanders wins the black vote by a large\nmargin (60% to 26% against Klobuchar and 56% to 31% against Buttigieg), but\nloses the white vote (35% to 52% against Klobuchar and 37% to 48% against\nButtigieg). Both men and women are nearly evenly divided when Sanders is\nmatched up against either Klobuchar or Buttigieg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen\npitted against Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg are stronger in Virginia\u2019s racially\ndiverse electorate than Klobuchar and Buttigieg.  Two of the leading candidates are already\nwell known and the third has been spending a lot of time and money here, so we\ncan\u2019t be sure whether these differences are the product of real preferences or\njust name recognition. This should become clearer when all the candidates start\nfocusing on Super Tuesday,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Virginia\nvoters are looking for electability \u2013 62% say beating Trump is more important to\ntheir vote than lining up with a candidate on any policy issue. Another 22% say\nelectability is as important as their top policy concern while just 14% say it\nis less important than issue alignment. \nAmong those who say beating Trump is their top priority, 23% support\nBiden, 23% support Bloomberg, and 17% support Sanders. Among those who say it\nis not a top priority, 31% support Sanders and 21% back Bloomberg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at candidate qualities, 67% of likely Democratic primary voters say they want someone who can unite the country, while 27% say they prefer someone who can bring about change. More than 4 in 10 \u201cchange\u201d voters back Sanders (43%), while \u201cunite\u201d voters are divided between Bloomberg (26%) and Biden (19%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Virginia Democratic primary voters are divided on the possibility of\nbeating Trump in November. Nearly half (45%) think the incumbent will be\nreelected, while an identical number (45%) think he will lose to the Democrat.\nA bare majority (54%) of likely primary voters feel optimistic about this year\u2019s\nelection (27% very and 27% somewhat), while 41% are pessimistic (20% very and\n21% somewhat). Black voters (72%) are more likely than white voters (46%) to\nfeel optimistic about the 2020 election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em> was conducted by telephone from February 13 to 16, 2020 with 400 Virginia voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary on March 3, 2020, out of 706 registered voters that were contacted for the poll. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +\/- 4.9 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS                                                                         <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due\nto rounding.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.<\/span> If the Democratic primary election for president was today, would you vote for [NAMES WERE ROTATED<\/em>]? [If UNDECIDED:<\/em> If you had to vote for one of these candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward?]<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>(with leaners)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Mike Bloomberg\n <\/td> 22%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td> 22%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Joe Biden\n <\/td> 18%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Pete Buttigieg\n <\/td> 11%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Amy Klobuchar\n <\/td> 9%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Elizabeth Warren\n <\/td> 5%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Tulsi Gabbard\n <\/td> 1%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Tom Steyer\n <\/td> 0%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Other\n <\/td> <1%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Undecided\n <\/td> 11%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td> (400)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

2.<\/span> Are you firmly decided on your candidate choice or are you open to the possibility of voting for a different candidate on primary day?\u00a0 [If OPEN<\/em>: <\/strong>Would you rate the possibility of supporting a different candidate as high, moderate, or low?]<\/span><\/p>\n
 <\/em><\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Firmly decided <\/td>\n 25%<\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
Open to different candidate \u2026 <\/td> high possibility<\/td>\n 18%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
moderate possibility<\/td>\n 34%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
low possibility<\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
Already voted<\/em><\/td>\n 1%<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
(VOL) Don’t know<\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
No first choice (from Q1)<\/em><\/td>\n 11%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
(n)<\/em><\/td>\n (400)<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

3.<\/span> Who would be your second choice if you had to make one? <\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Joe Biden\n <\/td>\n 15%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Pete Buttigieg\n <\/td>\n 14%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Mike Bloomberg\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Amy Klobuchar\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Elizabeth Warren\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Tulsi Gabbard\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Tom Steyer\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) No one\n <\/td>\n 4%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Undecided\n <\/td>\n 19%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (400)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

4.<\/span> Did the results of the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses make you take a second look at any of the candidates, or did this not really change your thinking about who you will support in the primary?\u00a0 [If TOOK A SECOND LOOK:<\/em> <\/strong>Did you actually change your mind about who to support or not?]<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Took a second look, and\u2026<\/td> changed mind<\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
did not change mind<\/td>\n 11%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not really change thinking\n <\/td>\n 81%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don’t know\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (400)<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

5.<\/span> I am going to read you a few pairs of candidate names. If the Democratic nomination came down to just these two candidates by the Virginia primary, who would you vote for? [CANDIDATE PAIRS WERE ROTATED AND NAMES WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/span><\/p>\n

Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td>\n 38%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Joe Biden\n <\/td>\n 51%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Neither\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Undecided\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (400)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td>\n 44%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Pete Buttigieg\n <\/td>\n 42%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Neither\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (400)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td>\n 45%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Amy Klobuchar\n <\/td>\n 42%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Neither\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (400)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td>\n 41%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Mike Bloomberg\n <\/td>\n 47%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already\n voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/em><\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Neither\n <\/td>\n 4%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (400)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

6.<\/span> When thinking about who you are supporting in the Democratic primary, how much of a factor is beating Donald Trump next November \u2013 is it more important than any policy issue you are concerned with, about as important as your top policy concern, or less important than your top policy concern?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n More important\n <\/td>\n 62%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n About as important\n <\/td>\n 22%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Less important\n <\/td>\n 14%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don’t know\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (400)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

7.<\/span> If you had to choose, are you more concerned about choosing a candidate who can bring about change or a candidate who can unite the country?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Bring about change\n <\/td>\n 27%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Unite the country\n <\/td>\n 67%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Neither\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don’t know\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (400)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

8.<\/span> Do you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the 2020 presidential election? [Is that very or somewhat optimistic\/pessimistic?]<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Very optimistic\n <\/td>\n 27%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Somewhat optimistic\n <\/td>\n 27%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Somewhat pessimistic\n <\/td>\n 21%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Very pessimistic\n <\/td>\n 20%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Neither, don\u2019t care\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (400)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

9.<\/span> As of right now, what do you think the chances are that Donald Trump gets reelected in November \u2013 do you think he will definitely get reelected, probably get reelected, probably lose to the Democrat, or definitely lose to the Democrat?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>Feb.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Definitely get reelected\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Probably get reelected\n <\/td>\n 39%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Probably lose to the\n Democrat\n <\/td>\n 34%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Definitely lose to the Democrat\n <\/td>\n 11%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Depends on the Democrat\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n       (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (400)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

METHODOLOGY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth\nUniversity Poll<\/em> was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University\nPolling Institute from February 13 to 16, 2020 with\na statewide random sample of 706 Virginia voters drawn from a list of\nregistered voters who participated in a primary or general election in the 2016,\n2017, or 2018 election cycles (excluding those who have consistently voted in\nRepublican primaries), or have registered to vote since November 2018. This\nincludes 305 contacted by a live\ninterviewer on a landline telephone and 401 contacted\nby a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Results are based on 400 voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic\npresidential primary on March 3, 2020. Monmouth is responsible for\nall aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample\nis weighted for age, gender, race, education, and region based on state voter\nregistration list information and U.S. Census information (CPS 2018 supplement).\nData collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter\nsample). For results based on the sample of likely Democratic primary voters,\none can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a\nmaximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample\ndesign). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In\naddition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and\npractical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into\nthe findings of opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
Self-Reported Party<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
  62% Democrat<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
33% Independent<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
  5% Republican<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
43% Male<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
57% Female<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
17% 18-34<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
22% 35-49<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
33% 50-64<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
29% 65+<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
62% White, non-Hispanic<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
27% Black<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
  6% Hispanic<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
  5% Asian, other<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
45% No degree<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
55% 4 year degree<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
33% NoVA (CD 8\/10\/11)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
49% East (CD 1\/2\/3\/4\/7)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
18% West (CD 5\/6\/9)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg, Sanders, and Biden lead field<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":40802245683,"template":"","geography":[39],"class_list":["post-40802245679","poll","type-poll","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","geography-virginia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802245679","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/poll"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802245679\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802245697,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802245679\/revisions\/40802245697"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40802245683"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802245679"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"geography","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/geography?post=40802245679"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}