{"id":40802245410,"date":"2020-01-28T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-01-28T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/?post_type=poll&p=40802245410"},"modified":"2020-01-28T09:42:26","modified_gmt":"2020-01-28T14:42:26","slug":"monmouthpoll_us_012820","status":"publish","type":"poll","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_us_012820\/","title":{"rendered":"Little Opposition to USMCA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

West Long Branch, NJ<\/em> \u2013\nRepublicans have become free trade enthusiasts, although a significant number\nof Americans have not formed an opinion of USMCA, the recently approved North\nAmerican trade agreement. The Monmouth University Poll<\/em><\/strong> also finds\nthat there is a split decision on whether USMCA will be better for the country\nthan NAFTA, the treaty it will replace, but very few Americans register a\nnegative opinion of the new trade deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most Americans have not formed an opinion of USMCA \u2013 the United\nStates-Mexico-Canada Agreement \u2013 that was approved by Congress last week. While\n33% of the public approves of this new trade deal and only 5% disapproves, a\nmajority (61%) has no opinion on this. Just 19% of the public has heard a lot\nabout USMCA and 45% has heard a little, while 37% has heard nothing at all.\nAmong those who have heard at least a little about the trade deal, 48% approve\nof it, 7% disapprove, and 45% have no opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Republicans (53%) are more likely than independents (29%) and\nDemocrats (24%) to approve of USMCA, but there are much smaller partisan\ndifferences on disapproval (just 1% of Republicans, 6% of independents, and 8%\nof Democrats). Just under half of Republicans (45%) have no opinion on the new\ndeal, compared to about two-thirds of independents (65%) and Democrats (68%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPresident Trump\u2019s new deal seems to have convinced a number of\nRepublicans to get on the free trade bandwagon,\u201d said Patrick Murray, director\nof the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A majority of Americans (57%) say that free trade agreements with other countries are good for the United States, while just 10% say they are bad and 29% are not sure. Opinion that free trade deals are good for the U.S. has increased from 51% last year and 52% in 2018. The recent uptick of positive views on free trade has come almost entirely from Republicans (from 40% in 2019 to 68% now), while opinion has been more stable among independents (56% in 2019 and 55% now) and Democrats (55% in 2019 and 53% now).  Back in 2015, far fewer Americans saw free trade as good for the U.S. (24%) and there was no partisan difference in this opinion \u2013 23% of Republicans, 24% of Democrats, and 24% of independents alike had a positive view of these deals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The public is divided on whether NAFTA \u2013 the three-nation trade agreement that has been in effect for more than 25 years \u2013 has been good (31%) or bad (27%) for the country. Another 9% say it has not had much impact either way and 33% are unsure of what its impact has been. This opinion is nominally more positive than it was in 2015, when 18% said NAFTA had been good and 24% said it had been bad.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a distinct partisan gap in opinion of the existing treaty.\nThe original NAFTA agreement was signed by President George H. W. Bush in 1992,\nbut it wasn\u2019t approved by Congress until the following year when President Bill\nClinton took office. Currently, opinion of NAFTA stands at 13% good to 50% bad\namong Republicans, 35% good to 27% bad among independents, and 41% good to 8%\nbad among Democrats. This partisan gap was significantly narrower in 2015\n(12%-31% Republicans, 19%-24% independents, and 23%-20% Democrats).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em> finds that 31% of the public expects that the new USMCA deal will be better for the country than NAFTA has been, 8% feels that it will be worse, 30% says it will be about the same, and 31% do not have an opinion. Among those who have heard at least a little about the new deal, 43% say it will be better than NAFTA, 9% say it will be worse, 29% say it will be the same, and 20% have no opinion. By party affiliation, Republicans (61%) are significantly more likely than either independents (30%) or Democrats (8%) to expect USMCA will be better for the country. However, there is not much partisan difference in the number who think it will actually be worse (3% Republicans, 7% independents, and 12% Democrats).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em>\nwas conducted by telephone from January 16 to 20, 2020 with 903 adults in the\nUnited States.  The question results in this release have a margin of\nerror of +\/- 3.3 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth\nUniversity Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

QUESTIONS\nAND RESULTS      <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to\nrounding.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Q1-7 previously released.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

8.<\/span> In general, do you think that free trade agreements with other countries are good or bad for the United States, or are you not sure?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n TREND:\n <\/td> Jan.
2020<\/strong><\/td>		 May
2019<\/td>		 June
2018<\/td>		 Nov.
2015<\/td><\/tr>
\n Good\n <\/td>\n 57%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 51%\n <\/td>\n 52%\n <\/td>\n 24%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Bad\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td>\n 26%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not sure\n <\/td>\n 29%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 29%\n <\/td>\n 30%\n <\/td>\n 46%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Depends\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td> (903)<\/em><\/strong><\/td> (802)<\/em><\/td> (806)<\/em><\/td> (1,012)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

9.<\/span> Do you think NAFTA, the free trade agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico that went into effect in 1994, has been good or bad for most Americans, has not had much impact on most Americans, or are you not sure?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n TREND:\n <\/td> Jan.
2020<\/strong><\/td>		 Nov.
2015<\/td><\/tr>
\n Good\n <\/td>\n 31%<\/strong>\n <\/td> 18%<\/td><\/tr>
\n Bad\n <\/td>\n 27%<\/strong>\n <\/td> 24%<\/td><\/tr>
\n Not much impact\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/strong>\n <\/td> 16%<\/td><\/tr>
\n Not sure\n <\/td>\n 33%<\/strong>\n <\/td> 43%<\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td> (903)<\/em><\/strong><\/td> (1,012)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

10.<\/span> The United States has recently approved a new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, called U. S. M. C. A. or \u201cUs-macca,\u201d which will replace NAFTA. Have you heard a lot, a little, or nothing at all about this?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td> Jan.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n A lot\n <\/td>\n 19%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n A little\n <\/td>\n 45%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Nothing at all\n <\/td>\n 37%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td> (903)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

11.<\/span> Do you approve or disapprove of this new trade deal with Mexico and Canada, or do you have no opinion on this?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td> Jan.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Approve\n <\/td>\n 33%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Disapprove\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No opinion\n <\/td>\n 61%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td> (903)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

12.<\/span> Compared to NAFTA, do you think this new trade deal will be better, worse, or about the same for the United States?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td> Jan.
2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Better\n <\/td>\n 31%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Worse\n <\/td>\n 8%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n About the same\n <\/td>\n 30%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 31%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td> (903)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q13-27 previously released.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

METHODOLOGY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth\nUniversity Poll<\/em> was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University\nPolling Institute from January 16 to 20, 2020 with a national random sample of\n903 adults age 18 and older. This includes 363 contacted by a live\ninterviewer on a landline telephone and 540 contacted by a live interviewer on\na cell phone, in English. Telephone numbers were selected through random\ndigit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified\nTroldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for\nall aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample\nis weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census\ninformation (CPS 2018 supplement). Data collection support provided by\nBraun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample). For results based on this\nsample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling\nhas a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points (unadjusted for\nsample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table\nbelow). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that\nquestion wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce\nerror or bias into the findings of opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Self-Reported<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 27%\n Republican<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 42% Independent<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 32% Democrat<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 49% Male<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 51% Female<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 30% 18-34<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 34% 35-54<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 36% 55+<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 64% White<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 13% Black<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 16%\n Hispanic<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n   8% Asian\/Other<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 68% No\n degree<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 32% 4 year\n degree<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em> <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.<\/strong>
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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