{"id":40802244338,"date":"2019-10-02T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2019-10-02T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/?post_type=poll&p=40802244338"},"modified":"2019-10-02T11:30:09","modified_gmt":"2019-10-02T15:30:09","slug":"monmouthpoll_us_100219","status":"publish","type":"poll","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_us_100219\/","title":{"rendered":"No Change in Trump Reelect Prospects"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

West\nLong Branch, NJ<\/em> \u2013 Recent events have not moved public opinion\nin either direction on whether President Donald Trump deserves a second term.\nHis reelection bid remains underwater, with particular signs of weakness among\ncritical voting blocs.  The latest Monmouth\nUniversity Poll<\/em><\/strong> also finds that Democratic voters nationwide are\ncurrently honing in on Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice\nPresident Joe Biden as the leading contenders to take on Trump in 2020.  There are signs, though, that Biden could\nsuffer some damage from the unfolding Ukraine story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just under 4-in-10 (39%) registered\nvoters feel that Trump should be reelected in 2020, while a majority (57%) say\nit is time to have someone new in the Oval Office.  These results are identical to Monmouth\u2019s August\npoll (39% reelect and 57% someone new). \nThis metric has been very stable since Monmouth started asking this\nquestion last November. Support for Trump\u2019s reelection has stayed in a narrow\nrange of 37% to 39% while the preference for someone new has ranged from 57% to\n60%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSupport for Trump\u2019s reelection\nhasn\u2019t budged, even after the events of last week. These revelations, or at\nleast the way they were filtered through the media outlets used by different\ngroups of voters, just served to confirm preexisting sentiment about the\npresident on both sides,\u201d said Patrick Murray, director of the\nindependent Monmouth University Polling Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using a traditional party\nidentification measure finds that support for Trump\u2019s reelection comes from 81%\nof Republicans, 37% of independents and just 4% of Democrats. However, many\nindependents actually lean toward one party or the other. When these \u201cleaners\u201d\nare combined with their fellow partisans, support for Trump\u2019s reelection does\nnot change significantly among Republicans (80%) or Democrats (4%), but it does\ngo down to 25% among \u201ctrue\u201d independents. These voters, who do not lean toward\neither party, make up about 14% of the total electorate in the poll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In\napproximately 300 \u201cswing\u201d counties across the country, accounting for about\none-fifth of the total U.S. electorate, only 31% back the incumbent\u2019s\nreelection compared with 64% who want a new occupant in the White House. \nIn 2016, Trump lost the cumulative vote in these counties by just one\npercentage point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTrump\u2019s base is sticking with him, but these results suggest that the president remains particularly weak among voting blocs that were crucial to putting him over the top in 2016,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump currently has a 43% favorable and 56% unfavorable personal rating among registered voters.  This negative -13 point gap in his rating is an even larger -20 points among those who hold a strong opinion of the president, coming in at 30% very<\/em> favorable and 50% very<\/em> unfavorable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The leading Democratic contenders taking on Trump in 2020 hold somewhat better ratings from the American electorate. Biden has a net +1 rating of 46% favorable and 45% unfavorable, although he has a net negative -7 point rating among those who have a strong opinion of him (20% very favorable and 27% very unfavorable).  Warren gets a net +2 rating of 42% favorable and 40% unfavorable, which drops to a negative -9 point rating among those with a strong opinion (22% very favorable and 31% very unfavorable).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPersonal ratings can be an indication of potential strengths and weaknesses for these candidates. Right now it looks possible that we could see a repeat of 2016 where both major party nominees end up being relatively disliked by voters. However, Trump is starting off at a clear disadvantage on this metric,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among other leading Democratic candidates, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has the highest negative ratings at 42% favorable and 49% unfavorable, with strong opinion standing at 18% very favorable and 37% very unfavorable. California Sen. Kamala Harris also earns a net negative rating of 33% favorable and 42% unfavorable, with strong opinion standing at just 12% very favorable and 30% very unfavorable. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg earns a split rating of 30% favorable and 31% unfavorable and a slightly negative 13% very favorable and 20% very unfavorable among those with a strong opinion, but nearly 4-in-10 voters (39%) have no opinion or have not heard of him at this point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth poll also finds that 43% of registered voters believe Trump\u2019s claim that Biden probably did pressure Ukrainian officials to keep them from investigating his son\u2019s business interests there. This compares to 37% who say that Biden probably did not do this and 20% who are unsure.  Among self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, 67% say Biden probably did this and 15% say he did not, with 17% being unsure. Among self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, 21% say Biden probably did this and 60% say he did not, with 18% being unsure. Among true independents, 39% say Biden probably did this and 27% say he did not, with 34% being unsure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe fact that 4-in-10 independents are inclined to believe what they have heard from Trump is a warning sign for the Biden campaign.  How the candidate fights back against this charge will be crucial to his argument of electability,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DEMOCRATIC\nPRIMARY<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The poll finds Warren (28%) and Biden (25%) at the front of the pack for the presidential nomination preferences of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters across the country, with Sanders (15%) following behind. Monmouth\u2019s August poll, which showed a three-way race at the top among Warren (20%), Biden (19%), and Sanders (20%), was considered an outlier at the time it was released. Still, Biden\u2019s backing remains lower in the current poll than it was early in the summer (32% in June) whereas Warren\u2019s support continues to grow (15% in June). Support for Sanders is in line with where it stood in June (14%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rest of the field includes Buttigieg at 5% (similar to his 4% to 5% showing in Monmouth polls since June) and Harris at 5% (down from her range of 8% in summer polling). Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and author Marianne Williamson each earn 2%, while the remaining 11 candidates included in the poll register 1% or less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As found in\nMonmouth\u2019s August poll, Warren (28%) and Biden (25%) share front-runner status\namong Democratic voters in \u201cearly states\u201d that hold contests in February or on\nSuper Tuesday. However, while Warren continues to gain support among Democrats\nliving in states which hold nominating contests later in the calendar (28% now\ncompared to 16% in June), Biden has lost ground as the favored candidate there\n(25% now compared to 38% in June).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe\ntop-line numbers in Monmouth\u2019s August poll may have differed from other polls\nat that time, but the underlying trend line we saw then has carried over.\nBiden\u2019s drop in the national \u2018beauty contest\u2019 is coming mainly from voters in\nstates that hold nominating contests after Super Tuesday,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n 2020 DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT by state primary schedule *<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>

\n \n  \n <\/td>		\n EARLY STATES\n <\/td>\n OTHER STATES\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  \n <\/td>\n Sep\u201819\n <\/td>\n Aug\u201819\n <\/td>\n Jun\u201819\n <\/td>\n May\u201819\n <\/td>\n Sep\u201819\n <\/td>\n Aug\u201819\n <\/td>\n Jun\u201819\n <\/td>\n May\u201819\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Elizabeth\n Warren\n <\/td>\n 28%\n <\/td>\n 20%\n <\/td>\n 15%\n <\/td>\n 9%\n <\/td>\n 28%\n <\/td>\n 20%\n <\/td>\n 16%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Joe\n Biden\n <\/td>\n 25%\n <\/td>\n 20%\n <\/td>\n 26%\n <\/td>\n 26%\n <\/td>\n 25%\n <\/td>\n 17%\n <\/td>\n 38%\n <\/td>\n 38%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie\n Sanders\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td>\n 16%\n <\/td>\n 15%\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td>\n 16%\n <\/td>\n 23%\n <\/td>\n 13%\n <\/td>\n 16%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Pete\n Buttigieg\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Kamala\n Harris\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 12%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  \n * Early states include those scheduled to hold a\n primary\/caucus in February 2020 or on Super Tuesday (March 3rd<\/sup>).<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Warren\ncontinues to see her ratings improve with every new poll.  She currently earns a 75% favorable and 9%\nunfavorable rating among Democrats and Democratic-leaners, which is up from\n65%-13% in August and 60%-14% in May. \nRatings for Sanders have also ticked up from past polls, now standing at\n75% favorable and 19% unfavorable, compared with 64%-24% in August and 65%-21%\nin May.  Biden has seen his ratings\nbounce back from the August poll. He now gets a 72% favorable and 20%\nunfavorable, up from 66%-25% in August and more in line with his 74%-17% rating\nin May. Warren has the strongest net rating score (favorable minus unfavorable)\nin the Democratic field at +66 points, compared to +56 for Sanders and +52 for\nBiden. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n 2020 CANDIDATE OPINION AMONG DEMOCRATIC VOTERS <\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
Net favorability rating:<\/em> <\/td>\n Sep \u201819<\/em>\n <\/td>\n Aug \u201819<\/em>\n <\/td>\n May \u201819<\/em>\n <\/td>\n Apr \u201819<\/em>\n <\/td>\n Mar \u201819<\/em>\n <\/td>\n Jan \u201819<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
Elizabeth Warren <\/td>\n +66\n <\/td>\n +52\n <\/td>\n +46\n <\/td>\n +32\n <\/td>\n +30\n <\/td>\n +40\n <\/td><\/tr>
Bernie Sanders <\/td>\n +56\n <\/td>\n +40\n <\/td>\n +44\n <\/td>\n +44\n <\/td>\n +53\n <\/td>\n +49\n <\/td><\/tr>
Joe Biden <\/td>\n +52\n <\/td>\n +41\n <\/td>\n +57\n <\/td>\n +56\n <\/td>\n +63\n <\/td>\n +71\n <\/td><\/tr>
Kamala Harris <\/td>\n +42\n <\/td>\n +39\n <\/td>\n +49\n <\/td>\n +40\n <\/td>\n +42\n <\/td>\n +33\n <\/td><\/tr>
Pete Buttigieg <\/td>\n +41\n <\/td>\n +29\n <\/td>\n +24\n <\/td>\n +29\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td>\n +2\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  \n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  \n <\/td>\n  \n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters who feel that Biden pressured Ukraine officials not to investigate his son, 45% have a favorable view of the candidate, 48% have an unfavorable view. Among those who feel this did not happen, 85% have a favorable view and 10% have an unfavorable one.  Among those who are unsure about the claims of Biden\u2019s actions in Ukraine, 61% have a favorable view of him and 20% have an unfavorable one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is a bit of a chicken and egg problem. It is likely that many of those Democrats who say Biden pressured Ukraine were never going to be his supporters to begin with,\u201d said Murray. Among those who say Biden probably pressured Ukraine, 31% support Sanders for the party\u2019s presidential nomination, 15% support Biden, 15% support Warren, 5% back Buttigieg, 4% back Harris, and many others throw their support to candidates who are not polling well overall, such as Williamson (5%), former cabinet secretary Juli\u00e1n Castro (4%), and Yang (3%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of the\nother two Democratic contenders included in the poll, Buttigieg has seen his\nratings tick up as he has become better known. \nHe now stands at 53% favorable and 12% unfavorable, compared to 43%-14%\nin August and 35%-11% in May.  Ratings\nfor Harris have held relatively steady among her fellow Democratic voters with\na current 60% favorable and 18% unfavorable rating, compared with 56%-17% in\nAugust and 58%-9% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Democratic National Committee recently announced that all 12 candidates who qualified for this month\u2019s debate will appear on the same stage. Democratic voters are divided on this \u2013 48% want to see all the candidates together on one night while 46% would prefer to split them over two nights. Just under 6-in-10 Democrats (58%) say they plan to watch the debate live, which is identical to the level of interest expressed for watching the first debate back in June (58%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em>\nwas conducted by telephone from September 23 to 29, 2019 with 1,161 adults in the United States. The results in this\nrelease are based on 1,017 registered voters and have a +\/- 3.1\npercentage point sampling margin of error.  This release also includes results based on 434 voters\nwho identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party which have a\nmargin of error of +\/- 4.7 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University\nPolling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

QUESTIONS\nAND RESULTS      <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to\nrounding.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Q1-4 previously released.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Note:\nQ5 was rotated with Q4-Trump impeachment question, which was released\nyesterday.]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

5.<\/span> Looking ahead to the 2020 election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should be reelected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in office?<\/span><\/p>\n
TREND: REGISTERED VOTERS<\/em> <\/td>\n Sept.
\n 2019<\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td>		\n Aug.
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n June
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n May
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n March
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n Jan.
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n Nov.
\n 2018\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Should be reelected\n <\/td>\n 39%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 39%\n <\/td>\n 37%\n <\/td>\n 37%\n <\/td>\n 38%\n <\/td>\n 38%\n <\/td>\n 37%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Someone else in office\n <\/td>\n 57%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 57%\n <\/td>\n 59%\n <\/td>\n 60%\n <\/td>\n 57%\n <\/td>\n 57%\n <\/td>\n 58%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL)\n Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 4%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,017)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (689)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (660)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (719)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (746)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (735)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (716)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q6 WAS ASKED OF DEMOCRATS\/LEANING\nDEMOCRATIC VOTERS]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

6.<\/span> I know the 2020 election is far away, but who would you support for the Democratic nomination for president if the candidates were the following? [INCLUDES LEANERS] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]<\/em> <\/span><\/p>\n
\n TREND:
\n (with leaners)<\/em>\n <\/td>		 Sept.<\/strong>
2019<\/strong> <\/td>		 Aug.
2019 <\/td>		 June
2019 <\/td>		 May
2019 <\/td>		 April
2019 <\/td>		 March
2019 <\/td>		 Jan.
2019 <\/td><\/tr>
\n Elizabeth Warren\n <\/td>\n 28%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 20%\n <\/td>\n 15%\n <\/td>\n 10%\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Joe Biden\n <\/td>\n 25%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 19%\n <\/td>\n 32%\n <\/td>\n 33%\n <\/td>\n 27%\n <\/td>\n 28%\n <\/td>\n 29%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Bernie Sanders\n <\/td>\n 15%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 20%\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td>\n 15%\n <\/td>\n 20%\n <\/td>\n 25%\n <\/td>\n 16%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Pete Buttigieg\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Kamala Harris\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td>\n 10%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Marianne Williamson\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Andrew Yang\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Cory Booker\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Juli\u00e1n Castro\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Amy Klobuchar\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Beto O\u2019Rourke\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 7%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Tom Steyer\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Steve\n Bullock\n <\/td>\n <1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n John Delaney\n <\/td>\n <1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Tulsi Gabbard\n <\/td>\n <1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Joe\n Sestak\n <\/td>\n <1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Michael Bennet\n <\/td>\n 0%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Tim\n Ryan\n <\/td>\n 0%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n 0%\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td>\n n\/a<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL)\n Other\n <\/td>\n <1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n \n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL)\n No one\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n <1%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL)\n Undecided\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 10%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td>\n 9%\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td>\n 9%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n   (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (434)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (298)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (306)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (334)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (330)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (310)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (313)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q7 WAS ASKED OF DEMOCRATS\/LEANING\nDEMOCRATIC VOTERS]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

7.<\/span> The next Democratic debate will be held in mid-October.\u00a0 Do you plan to watch this debate live, watch clips later, or do you not plan to watch the October debate?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n TREND:\n <\/td> Sept.
2019<\/strong> <\/td>		June
2019* <\/td><\/tr>
\n Plan to watch live\n <\/td>\n 58%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 58%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Watch clips later\n <\/td>\n 27%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 27%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not plan to watch\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (434)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (306)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

     [*Asked about the first debates in\nJune.]<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q8 WAS ASKED OF DEMOCRATS\/LEANING\nDEMOCRATIC VOTERS]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

8.<\/span> It looks like 12 candidates will qualify for this debate.\u00a0 Should all the candidates appear together on the same night or should the debate be divided over two nights with half the candidates appearing each night?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n Sept.
\n 2019<\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Same night\n <\/td>\n 48%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Divided over two\n nights\n <\/td>\n 46%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (434)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q9 WAS ASKED OF DEMOCRATS\/LEANING\nDEMOCRATIC VOTERS]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

9.<\/span> If the debate is divided into two nights, should the candidates be randomly assigned to each night regardless of their standing in the polls, or should the top polling candidates appear together on the same night and the remaining candidates appear on the other night?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n Sept.
\n 2019<\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Randomly assigned\n <\/td>\n 57%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Top polling candidates\n appear together\n <\/td>\n 34%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (434)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

10.<\/span> I\u2019m going to read you the names of some people who are running for president in 2020.\u00a0 Please tell me if your general impression of each is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable, or if you don\u2019t really have an opinion. If you have not heard of the person, just let me know. [NAMES WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/span><\/p>\n
\n ALL\n REGISTERED VOTERS:\n <\/td>\n Very\n favorable\n <\/td>\n Somewhat\n favorable\n <\/td>\n Somewhat\n unfavorable\n <\/td>\n Very\n unfavorable\n <\/td>\n No
\n opinion\n <\/td>		\n Not\n heard\n of\n <\/td>\n (n)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
Former Vice President Joe Biden <\/td>\n 20%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 26%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 18%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 27%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 8%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (1,017)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Vermont Senator Bernie\n Sanders\n <\/td>\n 18%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 24%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 12%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 37%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (1,017)<\/em><\/strong><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Massachusetts Senator\n Elizabeth Warren\n <\/td>\n 22%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 20%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 31%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 11%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 8%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (1,017)<\/em><\/strong><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n California Senator\n Kamala Harris\n <\/td>\n 12%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 21%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 12%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 30%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 14%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 11%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (1,017)<\/em><\/strong><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n South Bend, Indiana\n Mayor Pete Buttigieg\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 11%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 20%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 18%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 21%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (1,017)<\/em><\/strong><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n President\n Donald Trump<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 30%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 50%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 0%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (1,017)<\/em><\/strong><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n
TREND:
DEMOCRATS\/DEM LEANERS ONLY <\/td>		 Favorable <\/td> Unfavorable <\/td> No
opinion <\/td>		 Not
heard of<\/td>		\n (n)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Former Vice President\n Joe Biden\n <\/td>\n 72%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 20%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (434)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n     — August 2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 66%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 25%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 8%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (298)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — May 2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 74%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (334)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — April  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 72%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 16%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 12%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (330)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — March  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 76%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (310)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — January  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 80%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 8%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (313)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Vermont Senator Bernie\n Sanders\n <\/td>\n 75%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 19%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (434)<\/em><\/strong><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — August 2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 64%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 24%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (298)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — May 2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 65%\n <\/td>\n 21%\n <\/td>\n 12%\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n (334)\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — April  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 65%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 21%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (330)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — March  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 70%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (310)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — January  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 68%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 19%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 4%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (313)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Massachusetts Senator\n Elizabeth Warren\n <\/td>\n 75%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (434)<\/em><\/strong><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — August 2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 65%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 16%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (298)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — May 2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 60%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 14%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 14%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 12%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (334)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — April  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 51%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 19%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 18%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 12%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (330)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — March  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 49%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 19%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 15%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (310)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — January  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 57%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 16%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 11%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (313)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n California Senator\n Kamala Harris\n <\/td>\n 60%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 18%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (434)<\/em><\/strong><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — August 2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 56%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 16%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 11%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (298)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — May 2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 58%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 15%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 18%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (334)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — April  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 50%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 19%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 21%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (330)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — March  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 53%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 11%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 16%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 20%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (310)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — January  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 46%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 21%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 20%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (313)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n South Bend, Indiana\n Mayor Pete Buttigieg\n <\/td>\n 53%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 12%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 18%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (434)<\/em><\/strong><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n     — August 2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 43%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 14%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 20%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 23%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (298)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — May 2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 35%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 11%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 24%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 30%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (334)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — April  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 35%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 25%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 34%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (330)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — March  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n —<\/em>\n <\/td>\n —<\/em>\n <\/td>\n —<\/em>\n <\/td>\n —<\/em>\n <\/td>\n —<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n    — January  2019<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 8%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 27%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 58%<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (313)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q11-15 previously released.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

16.<\/span> President Trump claims that Joe Biden put pressure on Ukrainian officials to get them not to investigate his son\u2019s business dealings there.\u00a0 Do you think Biden probably did or probably did not do this?<\/span><\/p>\n
ALL REGISTERED VOTERS<\/em> <\/td>Sept.
2019<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Probably did\n <\/td>\n 43%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Probably did not\n <\/td>\n 37%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 20%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,017)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q17-30 held for future release.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

METHODOLOGY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth\nUniversity Poll<\/em> was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University\nPolling Institute from September 23 to 29, 2019 with a national random sample\nof 1,161 adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 465 contacted\nby a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 696 contacted by a live\ninterviewer on a cell phone. The results in\nthis poll release are based on a subsample of 1,017 registered voters. Telephone numbers were selected through\nrandom digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified\nTroldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for\nall aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is\nweighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information. Data\ncollection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD\nsample). For results based on the registered voter sample, one can say\nwith 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum\nmargin of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points (unadjusted for sample\ndesign). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table\nbelow). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that\nquestion wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce\nerror or bias into the findings of opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
REGISTERED VOTERS<\/em>  <\/em> <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 27%\n Republican<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 42% Independent<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 31% Democrat<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 48% Male<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 52% Female<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 28% 18-34<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 35% 35-54<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 37% 55+<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 64% White<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 12% Black<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 16%\n Hispanic<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n   7% Asian\/Other<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 66% No\n degree<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 34% 4 year\n degree<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n
\n DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n DEMOCRATIC VOTERS<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 37% Male<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 63% Female<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 29% 18-34<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 35% 35-54<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 36% 55+<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 56% White<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 21% Black<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 19%\n Hispanic<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n   5% Asian\/Other<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 63% No\n degree<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 37% 4 year\n degree<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em> <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Click on pdf file\nlink below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Warren and Biden lead Dem \u2018beauty contest\u2019 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":40802244339,"template":"","geography":[18],"class_list":["post-40802244338","poll","type-poll","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","geography-national"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802244338","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/poll"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802244338\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802244381,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802244338\/revisions\/40802244381"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40802244339"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802244338"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"geography","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/geography?post=40802244338"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}