{"id":40802243655,"date":"2019-08-22T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-08-22T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/?post_type=poll&p=40802243655"},"modified":"2019-09-30T10:22:19","modified_gmt":"2019-09-30T14:22:19","slug":"monmouthpoll_us_082219","status":"publish","type":"poll","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_us_082219\/","title":{"rendered":"Potential Impeachment Impact On 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

West\nLong Branch, NJ<\/em> \u2013 President Donald Trump\u2019s approval rating\nmay remain underwater, but a majority of the public continues to oppose removal\nby impeachment even as the House Judiciary Committee has started\nproceedings.  The latest Monmouth\nUniversity Poll<\/em><\/strong> finds that about one-fifth of those who disapprove of\nTrump\u2019s job performance join nearly all of those who approve of the president\nto say that moving ahead with an impeachment inquiry is a bad idea. Only 1-in-5\nAmericans think that an impeachment trial would actually lead to Trump\u2019s\nremoval from office.  Opinion is mixed in\nterms of how this could impact the 2020 elections, but there are some\nindications in the poll that surviving an impeachment trial could provide a\nsmall net boost for Trump\u2019s reelection effort. \nHowever, many Democrats want to plow ahead with impeachment regardless\nof the political consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s\noverall job rating stands at 40% approve and 53% disapprove, which is similar\nto his 41% to 50% rating in June. Over the past 12 months, the president\u2019s approval\nrating has ranged between 40% and 44% in Monmouth\u2019s polling while his\ndisapproval rating has ranged between 49% and 54%.  The usual demographic clefts remain present \u2013\nmen are divided on the president\u2019s job performance (49% approve and 43%\ndisapprove) while women are decidedly negative (31% approve and 62%\ndisapprove). White Americans without a college degree tend to approve of Trump\n(55% approve and 37% disapprove), while the reverse is true among white college\ngraduates (38% approve and 57% disapprove).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDonald Trump is not a popular president by most measures, but the appetite for impeachment remains low,\u201d said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just\nover a third (35%) of Americans feel that Trump should be impeached and\ncompelled to leave the presidency while a clear majority (59%) disagree with\nthis course of action. Support for the president\u2019s removal via impeachment has\nranged between 35% and 42% since Monmouth started asking this question in July\n2017, with the current results at the low end of that range. Opposition to\nimpeachment has been between 53% and 59% during the same time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall,\n41% of Americans say it is a good idea for the House Judiciary Committee to\nconduct an inquiry which may or may not lead to impeachment, but more (51%) say\neven this initial step is a bad idea. Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler confirmed\nthe launch of an inquiry earlier this month. Most Democrats (72%) feel it is a\ngood idea to go down this path, but only 39% of independents and just 8% of\nRepublicans agree.  Among those who\ndisapprove of the president\u2019s job performance, fully two-thirds (69%) say it is\na good idea to take this step, while just over 1-in-5 (22%) disagree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among\nthose who feel an impeachment inquiry is a good idea, 18% cite a need to follow\nthe evidence, 17% say Trump has broken the law, 17% point to Trump\u2019s moral\ncharacter, 16% cite the president\u2019s policies as problematic, 11% express\nconcerns about racism and immigration issues, 10% say Trump acts like he is\nabove the law and needs to be held accountable, 9% want the transparency of a\npublic inquiry, 7% say Trump is dishonest, and 7% say he is unfit or\nunqualified for the office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among\nthose who say an impeachment inquiry is a bad idea, the top reasons include\nfeeling that Trump has done nothing wrong (27%), it would be a waste of time\nand money (22%), the inquiry would be a partisan \u201cwitch hunt\u201d (13%), Trump has\ndone a good job as president (12%), and Congress should be working on other\nissues (10%).  There are some differences\nin these rationales, though, based on how poll respondents feel about the\npresident\u2019s overall job performance. \nAmong those who approve of Trump, the idea that he has done nothing\nwrong (34%) is the top reason for being negative toward an impeachment inquiry,\nfollowed by it being a waste of resources (22%), it is a partisan witch hunt\n(18%), Trump has done a good job in office (16%), Congress should be working on\nother things (11%), and the charges have already been investigated (7%).  Among those who disapprove of Trump but feel\nthat an impeachment inquiry is a bad idea right now, 26% say it would be a\nwaste of resources, 16% say it would backfire on the Democrats, 16% say it is\ntoo late in Trump\u2019s term to start this process, 10% feel that Trump has not\ndone anything impeachable, 10% say there is no point because the Senate won\u2019t\nremove him, 8% say Congress should be focused on other issues, and 7% say an\ninquiry would be bad for the country. \nAnother 15% of this group offer general negative comments about Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s\na small segment of the public who want Trump removed from office but feel the\npolitical calculus of an impeachment trial would not be the smartest move. They\nare outnumbered, though, by others who disapprove of Trump and feel that\nputting his misdeeds on the record is worth the effort even if the prospect of\nousting him is doubtful,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Removal\nof a sitting president by impeachment requires the House passing articles of\nimpeachment followed by two-thirds of the Senate voting to agree with those\ncharges. Just 37% say it is a good idea for the House to embark on formal\nimpeachment proceedings if there is unlikely to be a conviction in the Senate,\nwhile 56% maintain this is a bad idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In\nfact, only 1-in-5 Americans think it is likely (6% very and 14% somewhat) that\nthe Senate would actually vote to oust Trump if the House did pass articles of\nimpeachment.  Another 25% say removal of\nthe president by the Senate is not too likely and fully half (50%) say this\noutcome is not at all likely.  Even those\nwho support impeachment admit that Trump\u2019s removal is unlikely \u2013 just 33% of\nthis group expect that the Senate would vote to convict on articles of\nimpeachment, while 63% say this is not likely to happen.  Among those who oppose impeachment, only 11%\nsay it would probably to lead to Trump\u2019s removal from office while 83% say this\noutcome is not likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cImpeachment\nmay not earn widespread support, but that does not mean most voters want to see\nTrump remain in office. It is just that the ballot box seems to be their\npreferred way to achieve his ouster,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\nmajority (57%) of registered voters say it is time to have someone new in the\nOval Office, while just under 4-in-10 (39%) feel that Trump should be reelected\nin 2020. This is very similar to the 59% \u201csomeone new\u201d and 37% reelect results\nin June, just before the official launch of the president\u2019s reelection\ncampaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In approximately 300 \u201cswing\u201d\ncounties, accounting for about one-fifth of the total U.S. electorate, only 35%\nback the incumbent\u2019s reelection compared with 60% who want a new occupant in\nthe White House.  Since March, support for Trump\u2019s reelection has ranged\nbetween 33% and 45% across these swing counties. In 2016, Trump lost the\ncumulative vote in these counties by just one percentage point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the nearly 2,500 \u201cred\u201d counties\nthat Trump won by an average of 36 points in 2016, his current standing is a\ncomparatively narrower 60% for reelection and 36% for someone new. In the\nremaining 360 \u201cblue\u201d counties that Hillary Clinton won by about 35 points on\naverage, only 25% of voters support Trump for a second term while 72% want someone\nnew.  Over the past five months, support\nfor the president\u2019s reelection has ranged between 51% and 60% in the \u201cTrump\ncounties\u201d and between 21% and 25% in the \u201cClinton counties.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nMonmouth poll found mixed results on how an impeachment process might impact\nthe 2020 elections, with the potential for a small net benefit for Trump.  Overall, 31% of the public believes that a\nformal impeachment process without a conviction will put Trump in a stronger\nposition to be reelected next year, 23% say it will put him in weaker position,\nand 36% say it will have no significant impact on his reelection prospects\neither way.  Furthermore, 27% of the\npublic believes that a formal impeachment process without a conviction will put\nHouse Democrats in a stronger position to retain their majority in 2020, while\n34% say it will put them in weaker position, and 31% say it will have no\nsignificant impact either way. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impeachment\nsupporters are somewhat, but not overwhelmingly, more likely to see positive\nelectoral outcomes for their side.  Among\nimpeachment supporters, 25% say it will strengthen Trump\u2019s reelection bid and\n39% say it will weaken him, while 43% say it will strengthen House Democrats in\n2020 and 19% say it will weaken them. \nAmong impeachment opponents, 35% say it will strengthen Trump\u2019s\nreelection bid and 14% say it will weaken him, while 18% say it will strengthen\nHouse Democrats in 2020 and 45% say it will weaken them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cVoters\nare not the best prognosticators of how things will play out. In fact, they\u2019re\nalmost as bad as actual pundits.  But the\npoint of asking these questions is that the results suggest some people are\ntaking political considerations into account when thinking about pursuing\nimpeachment. On the other hand, we also see evidence that a sizable number of\nTrump opponents feel that potential consequences for 2020 should not be a\nfactor in moving ahead with the inquiry,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nimpact of an impeachment process on individual voter choices is also muddled.\nAbout equal numbers say they would be either more likely (24%) or less likely\n(26%) to support their own member of Congress if he or she voted in favor of\nimpeachment, while 46% say this would have no significant impact on their House\nvote.  On the other side of the issue,\nmore voters say they would be less likely (28%) rather than more likely (16%)\nto support an incumbent House member who voted against impeachment, while 51%\nsay such a vote would have no impact either way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among\nRepublicans, 49% say they would be less likely to back their incumbent House\nmember in 2020 if she or he voted in favor of impeachment (6% would be more\nlikely) and 35% would be more likely to back a representative who voted against\nimpeachment (7% less likely).  Among\nDemocrats, 43% say they would be more likely to back their incumbent House\nmember in 2020 if she or he voted in favor of impeachment (8% would be less\nlikely) and 44% would be less likely to back a representative who voted against\nimpeachment (5% more likely).  Among independents,\n25% say they would be less likely and 21% would be more likely to back their\nincumbent House member in 2020 if she or he voted in favor of impeachment and\n28% would be less likely and 14% would be more likely to back their\nrepresentative who voted against impeachment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThese\nfindings underscore Nancy Pelosi\u2019s dilemma. Democratic House members who rely\non an energized base for reelection can afford to be gung-ho on impeachment.\nThose who depend on the independent vote, which includes much of the 2018\nfreshman class, need to take a more cautious approach because the potential\nimpact is uncertain,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em> also finds that 17% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing and 71% disapprove. Just over 1-in-4 (28%) say the country is headed in the right direction while 62% say things have gotten off on the wrong track. These results are similar to other Monmouth poll findings over the past year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em>\nwas conducted by telephone from August 16 to 20, 2019 with 800 adults in the\nUnited States.  The question results in this release have a margin of\nerror of +\/- 3.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth\nUniversity Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

QUESTIONS\nAND RESULTS      <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to\nrounding.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.<\/span> Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n   TREND:\n <\/td>\n Aug.
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td>		\n June
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n May
\n 2019\n <\/td>		 April
2019 <\/td>		 March
2019 <\/td>		\n Jan.
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n Nov.
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n Aug.
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n June
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n April
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n March
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n Jan.
\n 2018\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Approve\n <\/td>\n 40%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 41%\n <\/td>\n 40%\n <\/td>\n 40%\n <\/td>\n 44%\n <\/td>\n 41%\n <\/td>\n 43%\n <\/td>\n 43%\n <\/td>\n 43%\n <\/td>\n 41%\n <\/td>\n 39%\n <\/td>\n 42%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Disapprove\n <\/td>\n 53%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 50%\n <\/td>\n 52%\n <\/td>\n 54%\n <\/td>\n 51%\n <\/td>\n 54%\n <\/td>\n 49%\n <\/td>\n 50%\n <\/td>\n 46%\n <\/td>\n 50%\n <\/td>\n 54%\n <\/td>\n 50%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL)\n No opinion\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 9%\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td>\n 7%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td>\n 9%\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (751)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (801)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (805)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (805)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (806)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (803)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (803)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (806)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n
\n   TREND:\n Continued<\/em>\n <\/td> Dec.
2017<\/td>		Sept.
2017 <\/td>		 Aug.
2017<\/td>		July
2017<\/td>		\n May
\n 2017\n <\/td>		\n March
\n 2017\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Approve\n <\/td> 32% <\/td>\n 40%\n <\/td>\n 41%\n <\/td>\n 39%\n <\/td>\n 39%\n <\/td>\n 43%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Disapprove\n <\/td>\n 56%\n <\/td>\n 49%\n <\/td>\n 49%\n <\/td>\n 52%\n <\/td>\n 53%\n <\/td>\n 46%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) No opinion\n <\/td>\n 12%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td>\n 10%\n <\/td>\n 9%\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (806)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,009)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (805)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,002)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (801)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

2.<\/span> Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n   TREND:\n <\/td>\n Aug.
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td>		\n June
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n May
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n April
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n March
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n Jan.
\n 2019\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Approve\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 19%\n <\/td>\n 20%\n <\/td>\n 24%\n <\/td>\n 23%\n <\/td>\n 18%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Disapprove\n <\/td>\n 71%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 69%\n <\/td>\n 71%\n <\/td>\n 62%\n <\/td>\n 68%\n <\/td>\n 72%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) No opinion\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 12%\n <\/td>\n 9%\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td>\n 9%\n <\/td>\n 10%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (751)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (801)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (805)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n
\n   TREND: Continued<\/em>\n <\/td>\n Nov.
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n Aug.
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n June
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n April
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n March
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n Jan.
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n Dec.
\n 2017\n <\/td>		\n Sept.
\n 2017\n <\/td>		\n Aug.
\n 2017\n <\/td>		\n July
\n 2017\n <\/td>		\n May
\n 2017\n <\/td>		\n March
\n 2017\n <\/td>		\n Jan.
\n 2017\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Approve\n <\/td>\n 23%\n <\/td>\n 17%\n <\/td>\n 19%\n <\/td>\n 17%\n <\/td>\n 18%\n <\/td>\n 21%\n <\/td>\n 16%\n <\/td>\n 17%\n <\/td>\n 18%\n <\/td>\n 19%\n <\/td>\n 19%\n <\/td>\n 25%\n <\/td>\n 23%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Disapprove\n <\/td>\n 63%\n <\/td>\n 69%\n <\/td>\n 67%\n <\/td>\n 71%\n <\/td>\n 72%\n <\/td>\n 68%\n <\/td>\n 65%\n <\/td>\n 69%\n <\/td>\n 69%\n <\/td>\n 70%\n <\/td>\n 68%\n <\/td>\n 59%\n <\/td>\n 66%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) No opinion\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td>\n 12%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td>\n 19%\n <\/td>\n 15%\n <\/td>\n 13%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td>\n 13%\n <\/td>\n 16%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (805)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (806)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (803)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (803)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (806)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (806)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,009)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (805)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,002)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (801)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (801)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n
\n   TREND: Continued<\/em>\n <\/td>\n Sept.
\n 2016*\n <\/td>		\n Aug.
\n 2016*\n <\/td>		\n June
\n 2016*\n <\/td>		\n March
\n 2016\n <\/td>		\n Jan.
\n 2016\n <\/td>		\n Dec.
\n 2015\n <\/td>		\n Oct.
\n 2015\n <\/td>		\n Sept.
\n 2015\n <\/td>		\n Aug.
\n 2015\n <\/td>		\n July
\n 2015\n <\/td>		\n June
\n 2015\n <\/td>		\n April
\n 2015\n <\/td>		\n Jan.
\n 2015\n <\/td>		\n Dec.
\n 2014\n <\/td>		\n July
\n 2013\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Approve\n <\/td>\n 15%\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td>\n 17%\n <\/td>\n 22%\n <\/td>\n 17%\n <\/td>\n 16%\n <\/td>\n 17%\n <\/td>\n 19%\n <\/td>\n 18%\n <\/td>\n 18%\n <\/td>\n 19%\n <\/td>\n 21%\n <\/td>\n 18%\n <\/td>\n 17%\n <\/td>\n 14%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Disapprove\n <\/td>\n 77%\n <\/td>\n 78%\n <\/td>\n 76%\n <\/td>\n 68%\n <\/td>\n 73%\n <\/td>\n 73%\n <\/td>\n 71%\n <\/td>\n 71%\n <\/td>\n 72%\n <\/td>\n 69%\n <\/td>\n 71%\n <\/td>\n 67%\n <\/td>\n 70%\n <\/td>\n 73%\n <\/td>\n 76%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) No opinion\n <\/td>\n 8%\n <\/td>\n 9%\n <\/td>\n 7%\n <\/td>\n 10%\n <\/td>\n 10%\n <\/td>\n 10%\n <\/td>\n 12%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td>\n 12%\n <\/td>\n 10%\n <\/td>\n 12%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td>\n 11%\n <\/td>\n 10%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (803)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (803)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,008)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,003)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,006)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,012)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,009)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,203)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,001)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,002)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,005)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,003)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,008)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,012)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

*Registered\nvoters<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

3.<\/span> Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n   TREND:\n <\/td>\n Aug.
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td>		\n June
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n May
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n April
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n March
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n Nov.
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n Aug.
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n June
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n April
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n March
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n Jan.
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n Dec.
\n 2017\n <\/td>		\n Aug.
\n 2017\n <\/td>		\n May
\n 2017\n <\/td>		\n March
\n 2017\n <\/td>		\n Jan.
\n 2017\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Right direction\n <\/td>\n 28%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 31%\n <\/td>\n 29%\n <\/td>\n 28%\n <\/td>\n 29%\n <\/td>\n 35%\n <\/td>\n 35%\n <\/td>\n 40%\n <\/td>\n 33%\n <\/td>\n 31%\n <\/td>\n 37%\n <\/td>\n 24%\n <\/td>\n 32%\n <\/td>\n 31%\n <\/td>\n 35%\n <\/td>\n 29%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Wrong track\n <\/td>\n 62%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 62%\n <\/td>\n 63%\n <\/td>\n 62%\n <\/td>\n 63%\n <\/td>\n 55%\n <\/td>\n 57%\n <\/td>\n 53%\n <\/td>\n 58%\n <\/td>\n 61%\n <\/td>\n 57%\n <\/td>\n 66%\n <\/td>\n 58%\n <\/td>\n 61%\n <\/td>\n 56%\n <\/td>\n 65%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Depends\n <\/td>\n 8%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 7%\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 7%\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 7%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 1%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (751)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (801)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (805)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (806)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (803)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (803)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (806)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (806)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (805)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,002)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (801)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (801)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n
\n   TREND: Continued<\/em>\n <\/td>\n Aug.
\n 2016*\n <\/td>		\n Oct.
\n 2015\n <\/td>		\n July
\n 2015\n <\/td>		\n June
\n 2015\n <\/td>		\n April
\n 2015\n <\/td>		\n Dec.
\n 2014\n <\/td>		\n July
\n 2013\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Right direction\n <\/td>\n 30%\n <\/td>\n 24%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 28%\n <\/td>\n 23%\n <\/td>\n 27%\n <\/td>\n 23%\n <\/td>\n 28%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Wrong track\n <\/td>\n 65%\n <\/td>\n 66%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 63%\n <\/td>\n 68%\n <\/td>\n 66%\n <\/td>\n 69%\n <\/td>\n 63%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Depends\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 4%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 2%\n <\/td>\n 3%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (803)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,012)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,001)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,002)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,005)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,008)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (1,012)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

            *Registered voters<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4.<\/span> Do you think President Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the Presidency, or not?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n   TREND:\n <\/td>\n Aug.
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td>		\n June
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n May
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n March
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n Nov.
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n April
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n Jan.
\n 2018\n <\/td>		\n July
\n 2017\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Yes, should\n <\/td>\n 35%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 35%\n <\/td>\n 39%\n <\/td>\n 42%\n <\/td>\n 36%\n <\/td>\n 39%\n <\/td>\n 38%\n <\/td>\n 41%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No, should not\n <\/td>\n 59%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 59%\n <\/td>\n 56%\n <\/td>\n 54%\n <\/td>\n 59%\n <\/td>\n 56%\n <\/td>\n 57%\n <\/td>\n 53%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 6%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (751)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (802)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (803)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (806)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY: moe= +\/- 3.7%<\/strong><\/em>]<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

5.<\/span> Looking ahead to the 2020 election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should be reelected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in office?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n   TREND:  REGISTERED\n    <\/em>\n   VOTERS<\/em>\n <\/td>\n Aug.
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td>		\n June
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n May
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n March
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n Jan.
\n 2019\n <\/td>		\n Nov.
\n 2018\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Should be reelected\n <\/td>\n 39%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 37%\n <\/td>\n 37%\n <\/td>\n 38%\n <\/td>\n 38%\n <\/td>\n 37%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Someone else in office\n <\/td>\n 57%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 59%\n <\/td>\n 60%\n <\/td>\n 57%\n <\/td>\n 57%\n <\/td>\n 58%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL)\n Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 4%<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 5%\n <\/td>\n 4%\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (689)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td>\n (660)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (719)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (746)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (735)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (716)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

6.<\/span> Do you think it is a good idea or bad idea for the House Judiciary Committee to conduct an impeachment inquiry into President Trump that may or may not lead to impeachment?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>Aug.
2019<\/strong> <\/td><\/tr>
\n Good idea\n <\/td> 41%<\/strong> <\/td><\/tr>
\n Bad idea\n <\/td>\n 51%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Both\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td> (800)<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[IF \u201cGOOD IDEA\u201d in Q6: moe= +\/- 5.5%<\/strong><\/em>]<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

7A.<\/span> Why do you feel that way?\u00a0 [LIST WAS NOT READ.<\/em>] <\/span><\/p>\n

[Note: Results add to more than 100% because multiple responses were\naccepted.<\/em>]  <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n Aug.
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Broken the\n law\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Need to follow\n evidence\n <\/td>\n 18%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Exposure, transparency\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Unfit, unqualified\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Liar, dishonest\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Checks & balances\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Acts above the law,\n hold accountable\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Bad policies, bad job\n <\/td>\n 16%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Needs to be removed\n <\/td>\n 4%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Racism, immigration\n <\/td>\n 11%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Moral character,\n personality\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Russia ties\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Other\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No answer\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (314)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[IF \u201cBAD IDEA\u201d in Q6: moe= +\/- 4.7%<\/strong><\/em>]<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

7B.<\/span> Why do you feel that way?\u00a0 [LIST WAS NOT READ.<\/em>] <\/span><\/p>\n

[Note: Results add to more than 100% because multiple responses were\naccepted.<\/em>]  <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n  \n <\/td> Aug.
2019<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Trump has\n not done anything wrong\n <\/td>\n 27%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Waste of time, money\n <\/td>\n 22%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Trump\u2019s done a good\n job\n <\/td>\n 12%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Partisanship, witch\n hunt\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already investigated,\n move on\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Congress should work\n on other things\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Will backfire on\n Democrats\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Too\n late, wait for election\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Senate won\u2019t remove\n him\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Bad for country\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Trump duly elected\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No worse than past\n presidents or Congress\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Negative comments\n about Trump\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Other\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No answer\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (431)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

8.<\/span> As you may know, impeachment is a two-step process. First, the House must pass articles of impeachment. Then, two-thirds of the Senate must agree with those articles in order to remove a sitting president. If the House does pass articles of impeachment, how likely is it that the Senate will actually vote to remove President Trump from office \u2013 very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td> Aug.
2019<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Very likely\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Somewhat likely\n <\/td>\n 14%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not too likely\n <\/td>\n 25%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not at all likely\n <\/td>\n 50%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

9.<\/span> Do you think it is a good idea or bad idea for the House to conduct formal impeachment proceedings if the Senate is unlikely to vote to remove Donald Trump from office?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td> Aug.
2019<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Good idea\n <\/td>\n 37%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Bad idea\n <\/td>\n 56%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL)\n Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

10.<\/span> If Donald Trump is impeached by the House, but not removed from office by the Senate, do you think this will put him in a stronger position or weaker position to win reelection in 2020, or will it have no significant impact either way?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td> Aug.
2019<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Stronger position\n <\/td>\n 31%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Weaker position\n <\/td>\n 23%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No\n significant impact\n <\/td>\n 36%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

11.<\/span> And if Trump is impeached by the House, but not removed from office, do you think this will put the Democrats in a stronger position or weaker position to keep control of the House of Representatives in 2020, or will it have no significant impact either way?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td> Aug.
2019<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n Stronger position\n <\/td>\n 27%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Weaker position\n <\/td>\n 34%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No\n significant impact\n <\/td>\n 31%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 8%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 12 & 13 WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

12.<\/span> If your member of the House of Representatives voted in favor of<\/strong> impeachment, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for him or her in 2020, or would it have no significant impact on your vote?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td> Aug.
2019<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n More likely\n <\/td>\n 24%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Less likely\n <\/td>\n 26%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No significant impact\n <\/td>\n 46%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Won\u2019t vote\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

13.<\/span> If your member of the House of Representatives voted against<\/strong> impeachment, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for him or her in 2020, or would it have no significant impact on your vote?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td> Aug.
2019<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\n More likely\n <\/td>\n 16%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Less likely\n <\/td>\n 28%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No significant impact\n <\/td>\n 51%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Won\u2019t vote\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 4%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (800)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q14-26 held for future release.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

METHODOLOGY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth\nUniversity Poll<\/em> was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University\nPolling Institute from August 16 to 20, 2019 with a national random sample of 800\nadults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 314 contacted by a live\ninterviewer on a landline telephone and 486 contacted by a live interviewer on\na cell phone. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing\nand landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest\nadult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey\ndesign, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age,\neducation, gender and race based on US Census information. Data collection\nsupport provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample). For\nresults based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error\nattributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage\npoints (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for\nsub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should\nbear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting\nsurveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Self-Reported<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 25%\n Republican<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 45% Independent<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 30% Democrat<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 48% Male<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 52% Female<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 30% 18-34<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 33% 35-54<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 36% 55+<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 64% White<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 12% Black<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 16%\n Hispanic<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n   9% Asian\/Other<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 68% No\n degree<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 32% 4 year\n degree<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em> <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Click on pdf file\nlink below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Democrats want inquiry despite little likelihood of ousting Trump<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":40802243670,"template":"","geography":[18],"class_list":["post-40802243655","poll","type-poll","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","geography-national"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802243655","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/poll"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802243655\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802244123,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802243655\/revisions\/40802244123"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40802243670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802243655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"geography","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/geography?post=40802243655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}