{"id":40802242142,"date":"2019-06-25T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-06-25T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/?post_type=poll&p=40802242142"},"modified":"2019-06-25T12:03:21","modified_gmt":"2019-06-25T16:03:21","slug":"monmouthpoll_us_062519","status":"publish","type":"poll","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_us_062519\/","title":{"rendered":"Abortion a Factor in 2020 Vote"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

West Long Branch, NJ<\/em> \u2013\nOne-in-three Americans rank abortion as a top issue in deciding how they will\nvote in the 2020 election. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to feel\nthis way according to the latest Monmouth University Poll<\/em><\/strong>.  Many Americans say that Republican\npoliticians are spending too much time on the issue of abortion, at both the\nnational and state level, especially when compared to Democratic officeholders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most Americans support access to abortion, including 32% who say it should always be legal and 31% who say it should be legal with some limitations. Another 24% say abortion should be illegal except for cases of rape or incest or to save the mother\u2019s life and 10% say abortion should be illegal in all cases.  The vast majority of Democrats (81%) and most independents (63%) support general access to legal abortion, while only 41% of Republicans share this view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One-third of American voters say that abortion will be a top factor in\ntheir vote for president next year, including 2% who say it is the most\nimportant issue and 32% who say it is very important to them. Another 30% say\nthis issue will be a somewhat important factor in their vote, while 17% rate it\nas not too important and 17% as not at all important.  Democratic voters (44%) are more likely than\neither Republicans (26%) or independents (28%) to say that abortion will be a\nprimary consideration in their 2020 vote decision. Among Democratic voters who\nrate the issue as very important in their vote, there is a close race for the\nparty\u2019s nomination: 28% of this group currently support Joe Biden, 21%\nElizabeth Warren, 18% Bernie Sanders, 7% Kamala Harris, 5% Cory Booker, 4% Beto\nO\u2019Rourke, 3% Pete Buttigieg, and 3% Andrew Yang.  Democrats who say abortion is not important\nin their vote choice are more likely than others to be undecided about their\ncandidate preference overall. [See <\/em>2020\nDemocratic candidate poll<\/em><\/a>.]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among all voters who say that abortion should be illegal without\nexceptions, 62% say this issue will play a very important role in their\npresidential vote. Among those who say abortion should always be legal, 43% say\nit will be a significant factor. The issue is less important for those who say\nabortion should be illegal with a few exceptions (32%) and those who say it\nshould be legal with some limitations (18%). \nWhile abortion is a central issue for the 1-in-10 voters who want it\nbanned in all cases, abortion access supporters who prioritize the issue are\nmore numerous overall.  Among all voters\nwho say abortion will be a very important factor in their presidential vote \u2013\nregardless of which side of the issue they take \u2013 just 26% support Trump\u2019s\nreelection.  The president\u2019s reelection\nsupport increases to 35% among those who say the issue is somewhat important to\nthem, 44% for those who say it is not too important, and 56% of those who say\nit is not at all important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe tend to focus on anti-abortion voters as the more potent electoral\nbloc on this issue.  But we are seeing\nsome evidence that voters on the other side of the spectrum could become more\nactivated in 2020,\u201d said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth\nUniversity Polling Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About half (49%) of Americans say Republican politicians in Washington are devoting too much effort to abortion given all the other things the federal government is responsible for. Another 20% say Republicans are not devoting enough effort to this issue and 22% say they are giving it the right amount of effort. This compares with 4-in-10 (39%) who say Democratic politicians in DC are giving the issue too much attention, versus 27% who say they are not giving it enough and 24% who say they are giving it the right amount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Closer to home, there is less concern among the American public that Republican politicians in their own state are devoting too much effort to abortion issues (29%) given all the other things their state government needs to do.  Another 20% say they are devoting too little effort and 34% say they are doing the right amount.  These results are very similar for home state Democratic politicians \u2013 26% of the public say these state leaders are spending too much effort on abortion, 23% say not enough, and 36% say the right amount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Americans actually think that politicians in other states are more likely to be spending too much effort on abortion than those in their home states, with a sizable gap in the perception of what Republican and Democratic leaders are doing.  Half of the public (50%) say that GOP politicians in other states are devoting too much effort to abortion issues, 14% say not enough, and 18% the right amount.  Just 1-in-3 (34%) say that Democratic politicians in other states are devoting too much effort to abortion issues, 26% say not enough, and 22% say the right amount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAbortion has become important nationally because a number of GOP-controlled states are passing stringent restrictions in an attempt to bring this issue before the Supreme Court.  Many Americans seem to be wondering whether these officeholders shouldn\u2019t be spending more time on other matters that their constituents care about,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among Americans who identify with the Republican Party, just 26% think that federal politicians from their own party are devoting too much attention to abortion, while a larger number (58%) feel that Democratic politicians are actually spending too much time on this issue.  Among Democratic identifiers, just 23% feel that their own party\u2019s representatives in Washington are spending too much time on abortion, while 64% say GOP politicians are actually doing that.  Independents are slightly more likely to say that federal Republican office holders (51%) spend too much effort on abortion than say the same about Democratic politicians in DC (40%).  One other interesting difference in these results is that Democrats (34%) are slightly more likely than Republicans (25%) to say that federal politicians from their own party are not<\/em> doing enough on this issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSome Democrats see legal abortion as being under threat from Republicans at the state level and want their own party\u2019s national leaders to be more engaged in this fight,\u201d said Murray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The poll finds a large gap in perceptions of how much time each party\u2019s officials in other states are spending on this issue.  For example, 68% of Democrats say that Republican politicians in other states are spending too much effort on abortion, but only 20% say the same of politicians from their own party.  On the other hand, less than half (46%) of Republicans say that Democratic politicians in other states are devoting too much attention to this issue, but only 23% say the same of politicians from their own party.  Independents are significantly more likely to feel that Republican politicians in other states are overly-focused on abortion (56%) when compared to how state-level Democrats are handling the issue (38%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em>\nwas conducted by telephone from June 12 to 17, 2019 with 751 adults in the\nUnited States.  The question results in this release have a margin of\nerror of +\/- 3.6 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth\nUniversity Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

QUESTIONS\nAND RESULTS      <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to\nrounding.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Q1-10 previously released.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

11.<\/span> Which comes closest to your view on abortion: it should always be legal, it should be legal with some limitations, it should be illegal except for rape, incest or to save the mother’s life, or it should always be illegal?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n June
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Always legal\n <\/td>\n 32%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Legal with limitations\n <\/td>\n 31%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Illegal\n with exceptions\n <\/td>\n 24%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Always\n illegal\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (751)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 12A & 12B WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considering\neverything that the federal government is responsible for\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

12A.<\/span> Are Republican politicians in Washington devoting too much effort on abortion issues, not enough effort, or the right amount?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n June
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Too much effort\n <\/td>\n 49%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not enough effort\n <\/td>\n 20%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Right\n amount\n <\/td>\n 22%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (751)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

12B.<\/span> Are Democratic politicians in Washington devoting too much effort on abortion issues, not enough effort, or the right amount?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n June
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Too much effort\n <\/td>\n 39%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not enough effort\n <\/td>\n 27%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Right\n amount\n <\/td>\n 24%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 9%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (751)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 13A & 13B WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considering\neverything that your state government is responsible for\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

13A.<\/span> Are Republican politicians in your state devoting too much effort on abortion issues, not enough effort, or the right amount?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n June
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Too much effort\n <\/td>\n 29%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not enough effort\n <\/td>\n 20%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Right\n amount\n <\/td>\n 34%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 16%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (751)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

13B.<\/span> Are Democratic politicians in your state devoting too much effort on abortion issues, not enough effort, or the right amount?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n June
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Too much effort\n <\/td>\n 26%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not enough effort\n <\/td>\n 23%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Right\n amount\n <\/td>\n 36%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 14%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (751)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 14A & 14B WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

14A.<\/span> Are Republican politicians in other states devoting too much effort on abortion issues, not enough effort, or the right amount?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n June
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Too much effort\n <\/td>\n 50%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not enough effort\n <\/td>\n 14%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Right\n amount\n <\/td>\n 18%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (751)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

14B.<\/span> Are Democratic politicians in other states devoting too much effort on abortion issues, not enough effort, or the right amount?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n June
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Too much effort\n <\/td>\n 34%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not enough effort\n <\/td>\n 26%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Right\n amount\n <\/td>\n 22%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 18%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (751)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY: moe= +\/-<\/em> 3.8%<\/em>] <\/p>\n\n\n\n

15.<\/span> How important will the issue of abortion be in your vote for president next year \u2013 will it be very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? [If<\/em> VERY IMPORTANT<\/em>: Will it be the most important issue or one of several important issues?]<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n June
\n 2019<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Most important \n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Very important \n <\/td>\n 32%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Somewhat important\n <\/td>\n 30%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not\n too important\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Not\n at all important\n <\/td>\n 17%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 2%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em><\/em>\n <\/td>\n (660)<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

[Q16-22 previously released.<\/em>]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Q23-30 held for future release.<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

METHODOLOGY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth\nUniversity Poll<\/em> was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University\nPolling Institute from June 12 to 17, 2019 with a national random sample of 751\nadults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 301 contacted by a live\ninterviewer on a landline telephone and 450 contacted by a live interviewer on\na cell phone. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing\nand landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest\nadult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey\ndesign, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age,\neducation, gender and race based on US Census information. Data collection\nsupport provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample). For\nresults based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error\nattributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.6 percentage\npoints (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for\nsub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should\nbear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting\nsurveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Self-Reported<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 25%\n Republican<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 43% Independent<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 32% Democrat<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 49% Male<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 51% Female<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 31% 18-34<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 33% 35-54<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 36% 55+<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 64% White<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 12% Black<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 16%\n Hispanic<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n   8% Asian\/Other<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 68% No\n degree<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 32% 4 year\n degree<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em> <\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n

Click on pdf file\nlink below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

GOP politicians seen as more occupied by the issue than Dems<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":40802242143,"template":"","geography":[18],"class_list":["post-40802242142","poll","type-poll","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","geography-national"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802242142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/poll"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802242142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802242158,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802242142\/revisions\/40802242158"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40802242143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802242142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"geography","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/geography?post=40802242142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}