{"id":40802208069,"date":"2016-05-05T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2016-05-05T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_nj_050516\/"},"modified":"2022-03-09T17:53:36","modified_gmt":"2022-03-09T22:53:36","slug":"monmouthpoll_nj_050516","status":"publish","type":"poll","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_nj_050516\/","title":{"rendered":"Many GOP Voters See Christie as a Drag on Trump Ticket"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

West Long Branch, NJ<\/em> \u2013 Even before the\nIndiana results came in, New Jersey was already shaping up to give Donald Trump\nhis best showing of the primary season. \nAs speculation now turns to the presumptive nominee\u2019s choice of running\nmate, the Monmouth University Poll<\/em><\/strong> finds many Garden State\nRepublicans feel Trump might be making a mistake in considering their governor\nfor the number two slot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

           \nAmong GOP voters likely to cast ballots in the June 7th<\/sup> primary, 70%\nsay they will vote for Trump.  Just 15%\nsupport John Kasich and 11% back Ted Cruz. \nTrump holds overwhelming leads among every voter group in the state. [Note: Interviews for this poll were\nconducted Sunday to Tuesday, nearly all of which were completed before Cruz\nannounced the suspension of his campaign.]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Trump recently said his pick for vice president would\n\u201cmost likely\u201d be an elected official. \nOne name at the top of that list is New Jersey\u2019s governor, Chris\nChristie.  However, few New Jersey\nRepublicans think choosing Christie would be a good idea.  Just 15% say Christie would help Trump\u2019s\ncampaign while a plurality of 41% actually say Christie would hurt Trump in\nNovember.  Another 37% say picking\nChristie for the ticket would not have an impact either way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\u201cIt\u2019s hard to imagine any running mate who could kill the Trump buzz, but the\nvoters who know Chris Christie best think he might be that guy,\u201d said Patrick\nMurray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.  \u201cThe advice from New Jersey Republicans?  Look elsewhere for a running mate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Christie may not be viewed as the optimal VP pick, but\nhis position on top of the Trump delegate slate would have done little damage\nto the candidate\u2019s standing.  New\nJersey\u2019s primary ballot requires Republicans to cast two votes \u2013 one for their\npresidential preference and another for the candidate\u2019s delegate slate.  In the 2012 presidential primary, more than\n1-in-5 voters neglected to select a delegate slate even though they voted for a\ncandidate.  Nearly half (47%) of likely\n2016 primary voters say seeing Christie\u2019s name at the top of a candidate\u2019s\ndelegate slate would have no impact on their support for that slate.  Another 34% say they would be more likely to\nsupport a slate headed by Christie and 13% say they would be less likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u201cFor New Jersey Republicans, this race is about the top\nof the ticket even though it is the delegate vote that actually counts.  Still, these poll results mean that Trump\u2019s\npreferred delegates will be heading to Cleveland even with a significant\nundervote for the slate,\u201d said Murray. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

            The other candidate slates are also headed by well-known\nRepublican figures, but these names would have had even less impact on voters\u2019\nchoice if the campaign had continued into June. \nThe Kasich slate is led by former governor Christie Todd Whitman.  Two-thirds (67%) say seeing her name at the\ntop of a delegate slate would have no impact on their vote, while 13% say they\nwould be more likely to support that slate and 12% would be less likely.  The Cruz slate is topped by former mayor and\ncandidate for statewide office Steve Lonegan. \nThree-quarters (76%) say seeing his name at the top of a delegate slate\nwould have no impact on their vote, while 8% say they would be more likely to\nsupport that slate and 7% would be less likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Looking ahead to November, 79% of New Jersey GOP primary\nvoters say they will stick with Trump in the general election.  Among the remainder, 6% say they will vote\nfor Democrat Hillary Clinton, 6% will vote for another candidate, 3% will stay\nhome, and 6% are not sure what they will do. \nAmong Cruz and Kasich supporters, just 45% say they will vote for Trump\nin November while 19% will vote for Clinton, 14% will vote for another\ncandidate on the ballot, 12% will stay home, and 10% are undecided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em> was conducted by telephone from May 1 to 3,\n2016 with 301 New Jersey voters likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary.  This sample as a margin of error of +5.7\npercent.  The poll was conducted by the\nMonmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DATA\nTABLES<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The questions referred to in this release are as follows:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due\nto rounding.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.<\/span>If the Republican primary election for president was today, would you vote for \u2013 [NAMES WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n May <\/strong>\n 2016<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Donald Trump\n <\/td>\n 70%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n John Kasich\n <\/td>\n 15%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Ted Cruz\n <\/td>\n 11%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Other\n <\/td>\n 0%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Undecided\n <\/td>\n 5%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (n)<\/em>\n <\/td>\n (301)<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

2.<\/span>Which of the following best describes where your decision stands at this moment: \u00a0I am completely decided on which candidate I will support, I have a strong preference right now but I am willing to consider other candidates, I have a slight preference among a group of candidates I like, or I am really undecided among a number of candidates?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n May<\/strong>\n 2016<\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Already voted<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 1%<\/em><\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Completely decided\n <\/td>\n 55%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Strong preference \n <\/td>\n 26%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Slight preference \n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Undecided \n <\/td>\n 11%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

3.<\/span>If Donald Trump became the Republican nominee and Hillary Clinton became the Democratic nominee, who would you vote for in the general election in November \u2013 Trump or Clinton or an independent candidate, or would you not vote for president?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n May<\/strong>\n 2016<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Donald Trump\n <\/td>\n 79%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Hillary Clinton\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Independent candidate\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Would not vote\n <\/td>\n 3%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Undecided\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

In\naddition to voting for a presidential candidate, you will also be asked to vote\nfor a slate of convention delegates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[QUESTIONS 4 THROUGH 6 WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4.<\/span>Are you more likely or less likely to vote for a delegate slate headed by Chris Christie, or does this have no impact on your delegate vote?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n May<\/strong>\n 2016<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n More likely\n <\/td>\n 34%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Less likely\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No impact\n <\/td>\n 47%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

5.<\/span>Are you more likely or less likely to vote for a delegate slate headed by Steve Lonegan, or does this have no impact on your delegate vote?<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n May<\/strong>\n 2016<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n More likely\n <\/td>\n 8%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Less likely\n <\/td>\n 7%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No impact\n <\/td>\n 76%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 10%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

6.<\/span>Are you more likely or less likely to vote for a delegate slate headed by Christie Todd Whitman, or does this have no impact on your delegate vote?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n May<\/strong>\n 2016<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n More likely\n <\/td>\n 13%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Less likely\n <\/td>\n 12%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n No impact\n <\/td>\n 67%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 8%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

7.<\/span>Do you think it would help or hurt Donald Trump if he chose Chris Christie to be his running mate, or do you think it wouldn\u2019t matter either way?<\/span><\/p>\n
\n  \n <\/td>\n May<\/strong>\n 2016<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Help\n <\/td>\n 15%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Hurt\n <\/td>\n 41%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Wouldn\u2019t matter\n <\/td>\n 37%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n (VOL) Don\u2019t know\n <\/td>\n 6%<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

The Monmouth University Poll<\/em> was sponsored and\nconducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from May 1 to 3, 2016\nwith a statewide random sample of New Jersey voters drawn from a list of Republican\nand unaffiliated registered voters, who participated in a primary election in\n2012, 2013 or 2014 or voted in two of the last three general elections or have\nregistered since 2014, and indicate they will vote in the Republican presidential\nprimary on June 7, 2016.  The total\nsample of 301 likely voters includes 220 contacted by a live interviewer on a\nlandline telephone and 81 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in\nEnglish.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design,\ndata weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based\non state registration list information on the pool of voters who participate in\nprimary elections. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field)\nand Aristotle (voter list). For results based on the total sample, one can say\nwith 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum\nmargin of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).\nSampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to\nsampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical\ndifficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the\nfindings of opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n POLL\n DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n LIKELY\n REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 51% Male<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 11% 18-34<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 92% White<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n 49% Female<\/em>\n <\/td>\n 30% 35-49<\/em>\n <\/td>\n   0% Black<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n 35% 50-64<\/em>\n <\/td>\n   6% Hispanic<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  <\/em>\n <\/td>\n 24% 65+<\/em>\n <\/td>\n   2% Other<\/em>\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

West Long Branch, NJ \u2013 Even before the Indiana results came in, New Jersey was already shaping up to give Donald Trump his best showing of the primary season.  As speculation now turns to the presumptive nominee\u2019s choice of running mate, the Monmouth University Poll finds many Garden State Republicans feel Trump might be making […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":40802251228,"template":"","geography":[30],"class_list":["post-40802208069","poll","type-poll","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","geography-new-jersey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802208069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/poll"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802208069\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802251231,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802208069\/revisions\/40802251231"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40802251228"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802208069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"geography","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/geography?post=40802208069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}