{"id":40802207448,"date":"2016-01-20T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2016-01-20T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_us_012016\/"},"modified":"2020-10-13T09:27:57","modified_gmt":"2020-10-13T13:27:57","slug":"monmouthpoll_us_012016","status":"publish","type":"poll","link":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_us_012016\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Holds National Lead"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>West Long Branch, NJ <\/em> &nbsp;&#8211; The latest <strong><em>Monmouth University Poll <\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;finds Donald Trump holding onto a commanding national lead in the race for the Republican nomination.&nbsp; Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are the only other two candidates polling in double digits.&nbsp; Among these three, Trump is seen as the stronger opponent against Hillary Clinton in November&#8217;s general election.&nbsp; Also, one-third of Republican voters do not believe or are unsure whether Cruz is a natural born citizen, while 1-in-10 say the same about Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are asked who they would support for the GOP nomination for president, Trump leads the pack at 36%.&nbsp; This is down slightly from his Monmouth poll-high of 41% in December, but he still doubles the support of his nearest rival.&nbsp; Cruz clocks in at 17%, up slightly from 14% last month.&nbsp; Rubio garners 11% support, similar to his 10% showing in December.&nbsp; The rest of the pack includes Ben Carson (8%), Jeb Bush (5%), Chris Christie (3%), Mike Huckabee (3%), John Kasich (3%), Rand Paul (2%), Carly Fiorina (1%), Rick Santorum (1%), and Jim Gilmore (0%).&nbsp; The poll was conducted after last week&#8217;s debate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump continues to draw his support evenly across the ideological spectrum &#8211; including 35% of very conservative voters, 36% of somewhat conservative voters, and 36% of moderate voters.&nbsp; Cruz does best among those who are very conservative (27%) or somewhat conservative (18%), compared with moderate (7%) voters.&nbsp; Rubio pulls in a consistent 11-12% among all three groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;These results suggest that the GOP race is fairly static on a national level.&nbsp; We&#8217;ll have to wait and see if the Iowa and New Hampshire results shake things up,&#8221; said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among the top three GOP contenders, Trump is seen as the strongest threat to Hillary Clinton.&nbsp; More Republican voters say that Trump (37%) would have a better shot than Cruz (24%) at beating Clinton in November, with 31% saying the two candidates would be equally as strong against the Democratic frontrunner.&nbsp; By an even wider margin, Trump (47%) is seen as more formidable than Rubio (22%) against Clinton, with 25% giving the two an equal chance.&nbsp; Republican voters are more divided on which of the two senators would be better positioned to take on Clinton &#8211; 31% choose Cruz, 23% choose Rubio, and 32% say the two would have an equal shot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Contrary to many party leaders&#8217; hopes, the electability argument is not going to drag down Trump,&#8221; said Murray, &#8220;but there may be some doubts about Cruz.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump has recently raised questions about Cruz&#8217;s eligibility to serve as president due to the latter&#8217;s birth in Canada.&nbsp; Among GOP voters, 65% believe Cruz is a &#8220;natural born citizen&#8221; constitutionally eligible to become president.&nbsp; Another 12% say he is not a natural born citizen and 24% are not sure.&nbsp; For good measure, the <em>Monmouth University Poll<\/em> asked the same question about Trump and found that 91% of Republicans believe Trump is a natural born citizen, 2% say he is not, and 7% are unsure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The poll also found that personal ratings of the GOP field have remained fairly stable.&nbsp; Trump holds a 57% favorable and 32% unfavorable rating, down only slightly from his 61% &#8211; 29% high water mark in December.&nbsp; Cruz stands at 58% favorable and 19% unfavorable, similar to last month&#8217;s 58% &#8211; 18% rating.&nbsp; Rubio earns a 54% favorable and 18% unfavorable rating, basically the same as his 55% &#8211; 18% rating a month ago.&nbsp; Christie&#8217;s rating is also positive at 42% favorable and 33% unfavorable.&nbsp; It was negative the last time Monmouth included his name in its personal ratings battery, but that was back in August.&nbsp; Kasich earns a negative rating of 21% favorable and 28% unfavorable, somewhat worse than his 23% &#8211; 18% rating in September.&nbsp; Bush garners the worst rating of the group at 32% favorable and 47% unfavorable, which is similar to his 34% &#8211; 47% rating in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <em>Monmouth University Poll<\/em> &nbsp;was conducted by telephone from January 15 to 18, 2016 with 1,003 adults in the United States.&nbsp; This release is based on a sample of 385 registered voters who identify themselves as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party.&nbsp; This voter sample has a margin of error of \u00b1 5.0 percent.&nbsp; The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>DATA TABLES<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The questions referred to in this release are as follows:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"Question\" class=\"wp-block-mu-question\"><p class=\"question\"><span class=\"question-number\">.<\/span><span class=\"question-text\">Who would you support for the Republican nomination for president if the candidates were \u2013 [NAMES WERE ROTATED]<\/span><\/p>\n<table tabindex=\"0\" class=\"wp-block-mu-table advgb-table-frontend\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Jan.<br><\/strong><strong>2016<\/strong><\/td><td>Dec.<br>2015<\/td><td>Oct.<br>2015<\/td><td>Sept.<br>2015<\/td><td>Aug.<br>2015<\/td><td>July<br>2015<\/td><td>June<br>2015<\/td><td>April<br>2015<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Donald Trump<\/td><td><strong>36%<\/strong><\/td><td>41%<\/td><td>28%<\/td><td>30%<\/td><td>26%<\/td><td>13%<\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ted Cruz<\/td><td><strong>17%<\/strong><\/td><td>14%<\/td><td>10%<\/td><td>8%<\/td><td>6%<\/td><td>9%<\/td><td>5%<\/td><td>11%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Marco Rubio<\/td><td><strong>11%<\/strong><\/td><td>10%<\/td><td>6%<\/td><td>5%<\/td><td>4%<\/td><td>6%<\/td><td>9%<\/td><td>5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ben Carson<\/td><td><strong>8%<\/strong><\/td><td>9%<\/td><td>18%<\/td><td>18%<\/td><td>5%<\/td><td>6%<\/td><td>11%<\/td><td>7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jeb Bush<\/td><td><strong>5%<\/strong><\/td><td>3%<\/td><td>5%<\/td><td>8%<\/td><td>12%<\/td><td>15%<\/td><td>9%<\/td><td>13%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>John Kasich<\/td><td><strong>3%<\/strong><\/td><td>3%<\/td><td>1%<\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>3%<\/td><td>1%<\/td><td>1%<\/td><td>1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chris Christie<\/td><td><strong>3%<\/strong><\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>3%<\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>4%<\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>4%<\/td><td>5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mike Huckabee<\/td><td><strong>3%<\/strong><\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>4%<\/td><td>4%<\/td><td>6%<\/td><td>7%<\/td><td>8%<\/td><td>9%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rand Paul<\/td><td><strong>2%<\/strong><\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>4%<\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>4%<\/td><td>6%<\/td><td>6%<\/td><td>6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Carly Fiorina<\/td><td><strong>1%<\/strong><\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>6%<\/td><td>4%<\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>1%<\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rick Santorum<\/td><td><strong>1%<\/strong><\/td><td>\n&lt;1%\n<\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>1%<\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>3%<\/td><td>1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jim Gilmore<\/td><td><strong>0%<\/strong><\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(VOL) Other<\/td><td><strong>0%<\/strong><\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>0%<\/td><td>1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>Lindsey Graham<\/em><\/td><td>\n<strong><em>n\/a<\/em><\/strong>\n<\/td><td><em>1%<\/em><\/td><td><em>1%<\/em><\/td><td><em>0%<\/em><\/td><td><em>1%<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>&lt;1%<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>2%<\/em><\/td><td><em>1%<\/em><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>Bobby Jindal<\/em><\/td><td>\n<strong><em>n\/a<\/em><\/strong>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>1%<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>&lt;1%<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>1%<\/em><\/td><td><em>2%<\/em><\/td><td><em>1%<\/em><\/td><td><em>1%<\/em><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>George Pataki<\/em><\/td><td>\n<strong><em>n\/a<\/em><\/strong>\n<\/td><td><em>1%<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>&lt;1%<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>&lt;1%<\/em><\/td><td><em>&lt;1%<\/em><\/td><td><em>&lt;1%<\/em><\/td><td><em>&lt;1%<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>&lt;1%<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>Rick Perry<\/em><\/td><td>\n<strong><em>n\/a<\/em><\/strong>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>1%<\/em><\/td><td><em>2%<\/em><\/td><td><em>2%<\/em><\/td><td><em>4%<\/em><\/td><td><em>5%<\/em><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>Scott Walker<\/em><\/td><td>\n<strong><em>n\/a<\/em><\/strong>\n<\/td><td><em>n\/a<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>3%<\/em><\/td><td><em>11%<\/em><\/td><td><em>7%<\/em><\/td><td><em>10%<\/em><\/td><td><em>11%<\/em><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(VOL) No one<\/td><td><strong>2%<\/strong><\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>3%<\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>1%<\/td><td>1%<\/td><td>2%<\/td><td>2%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(VOL) Undecided<\/td><td><strong>8%<\/strong><\/td><td>6%<\/td><td>9%<\/td><td>9%<\/td><td>10%<\/td><td>18%<\/td><td>20%<\/td><td>14%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>(n)<\/em><\/td><td><strong><em>385<\/em><\/strong><\/td><td><em>385<\/em><\/td><td><em>348<\/em><\/td><td><em>366<\/em><\/td><td><em>423<\/em><\/td><td><em>336<\/em><\/td><td><em>351<\/em><\/td><td><em>355<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"Question2\" class=\"wp-block-mu-question\"><p class=\"question\"><span class=\"question-number\">2.<\/span><span class=\"question-text\">I\u2019m going to read you a few names of people running for president. Please tell me if your general impression of each is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don\u2019t really have an opinion.\u00a0 [NAMES WERE ROTATED]<\/span><\/p>\n<table tabindex=\"0\" class=\"wp-block-mu-table advgb-table-frontend\"><tbody><tr><td>Favorable<\/td><td>Unfavorable<\/td><td>No<br>opinion<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jeb Bush<\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 32%<\/strong>\n<\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 47%<\/strong>\n<\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 21%<\/strong>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;December 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>34<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>47<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>19<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;October 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>37<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>44<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>19<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;September 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>41<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>39<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>20<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;August 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>52<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>30<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>18<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;July 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>50<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>30<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>20<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;June 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>40<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>35<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>25<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;April 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>49<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>31<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>21<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;December 2014<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>39<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>30<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>31<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chris Christie<\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 42%<\/strong>\n<\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 33%<\/strong>\n<\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 25%<\/strong>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;December 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;October 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;September 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;August 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>30<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>45<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>25<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;July 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>25<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>45<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>30<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;June 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>26<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>43<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>31<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;April 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>33<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>42<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>25<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;December 2014<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>36<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>34<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>31<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ted Cruz<\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 58%<\/strong>\n<\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 19%<\/strong>\n<\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 22%<\/strong>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;December 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>58<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>18<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>24<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;October 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>50<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>23<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>26<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;September 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;August 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>52<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>14<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>34<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;July 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>48<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>16<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>35<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;June 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>49<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>17<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>35<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;April 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>49<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>19<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>32<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;December 2014<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>39<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>15<\/em>\n<\/td><td>\n<em>46<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n<table tabindex=\"0\" class=\"wp-block-mu-table advgb-table-frontend\"><tbody><tr><td><em>(Question 2 continued)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>John Kasich<\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 21%<\/strong>\n<\/td><td><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 28%<\/strong><\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 51%<\/strong>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;December 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>n\/a<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;October 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>n\/a<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;September 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>23<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>18<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>59<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;August 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>27<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>14<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>58<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;July 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>19<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>16<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>65<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;June 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>20<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>18<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>62<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;April 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>24<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>14<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>61<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;December 2014<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>21<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>11<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>69<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Marco Rubio<\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 54%<\/strong>\n<\/td><td><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 18%<\/strong><\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 28%<\/strong>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;December 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>55<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>18<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>27<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;October 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>49<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>16<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>35<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;September 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>n\/a<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;August 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>54<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>11<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>36<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;July 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>53<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>19<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>28<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;June 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>54<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>13<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>34<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;April 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>41<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>18<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>40<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;December 2014<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>38<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>16<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>46<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Donald Trump<\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 57%<\/strong>\n<\/td><td><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 32%<\/strong><\/td><td>\n<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; 11%<\/strong>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;December 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>61<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>29<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>10<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;October 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>52<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>33<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>15<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;September 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>59<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>29<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>12<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;August 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>52<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>35<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>13<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;July 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>40<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>41<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>19<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;June 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>20<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>55<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>25<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;April 2015<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>28<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>56<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>15<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8211;December 2014<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><td><em>n\/a<\/em><\/td><td>\n<em>n\/a<\/em>\n<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>[<em>QUESTIONS 3 THROUGH 5 WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Imagine that Hillary Clinton became the Democratic nominee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"Question3\" class=\"wp-block-mu-question\"><p class=\"question\"><span class=\"question-number\">3.<\/span><span class=\"question-text\">Who would have a better shot at beating Clinton in November \u2013 Trump or Cruz, or would they be equally as likely to beat her?<\/span><\/p>\n<table tabindex=\"0\" class=\"wp-block-mu-table advgb-table-frontend\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Jan.<br><\/strong><strong>2016<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trump<\/td><td><strong>37%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cruz<\/td><td><strong>24%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Equally as likely<\/td><td><strong>31%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(VOL) Neither, both would lose<\/td><td><strong>2%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td><td><strong>5%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"Question4\" class=\"wp-block-mu-question\"><p class=\"question\"><span class=\"question-number\">4.<\/span><span class=\"question-text\">Who would have a better shot at beating Clinton in November \u2013 Trump or Rubio, or would they be equally as likely to beat her?<\/span><\/p>\n<table tabindex=\"0\" class=\"wp-block-mu-table advgb-table-frontend\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Jan.<br><\/strong><strong>2016<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trump<\/td><td><strong>47%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rubio<\/td><td><strong>22%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Equally as likely<\/td><td><strong>25%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(VOL) Neither, both would lose<\/td><td><strong>2%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td><td><strong>4%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"Question5\" class=\"wp-block-mu-question\"><p class=\"question\"><span class=\"question-number\">5.<\/span><span class=\"question-text\">Who would have a better shot at beating Clinton in November \u2013 Rubio or Cruz, or would they be equally as likely to beat her?<\/span><\/p>\n<table tabindex=\"0\" class=\"wp-block-mu-table advgb-table-frontend\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Jan.<br><\/strong><strong>2016<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rubio<\/td><td><strong>23%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cruz<\/td><td><strong>31%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Equally as likely<\/td><td><strong>32%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(VOL) Neither, both would lose<\/td><td><strong>5%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td><td><strong>9%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>[<em>QUESTIONS 6 &amp; 7 WERE ROTATED<\/em>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Constitution states that only a natural born citizen may serve as president of the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"Question6\/7\" class=\"wp-block-mu-question\"><p class=\"question\"><span class=\"question-number\">6\/7.<\/span><span class=\"question-text\">Do you believe that Ted Cruz is a natural born citizen, or not?<br> Do you believe that Donald Trump is a natural born citizen, or not? <\/span><\/p>\n<table tabindex=\"0\" class=\"wp-block-mu-table advgb-table-frontend\"><tbody><tr><td><em>Natural born citizen?<\/em><\/td><td><strong>Ted<br><\/strong><strong>Cruz<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Donald<br>Trump<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Yes<\/td><td>65%<\/td><td>91%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>No<\/td><td>12%<\/td><td>2%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(VOL) Don\u2019t know<\/td><td>24%<\/td><td>7%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The <em>Monmouth University Poll<\/em> was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from January 15 to 18, 2015 with a national random sample of 1,003 adults age 18 and older.&nbsp; This includes 650 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 353 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English.&nbsp; Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information.&nbsp; Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and SSI (RDD sample).&nbsp; The results in this poll release are based on a subsample of 385 registered voters who identify themselves as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party.&nbsp; For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 5.0 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).&nbsp; Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below).&nbsp; In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<table class=\"wp-block-mu-table advgb-table-frontend\"><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"3\"> <p style=\"text-align: center\"><em>POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)&nbsp; FULL SAMPLE &#8211; ALL ADULTS<\/em><\/p> <\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>49% Male<\/em><\/td><td><em>32% 18-34<\/em><\/td><td><em>66% White<\/em><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>51% Female<\/em><\/td><td><em>36% 35-54<\/em><\/td><td><em>12% Black<\/em><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/td><td><em>32% 55+<\/em><\/td><td><em>15% Hispanic<\/em><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/td><td><em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/td><td>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;7% Asian\/Other<\/em><\/p>\n<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n<table class=\"wp-block-mu-table advgb-table-frontend\"><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"3\"> <p style=\"text-align: center\"><em>POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)&nbsp; REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY<\/em><\/p> <\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>56% Male<\/em><\/td><td><em>19% 18-34<\/em><\/td><td><em>85% White<\/em><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>44% Female<\/em><\/td><td><em>43% 35-54<\/em><\/td><td>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><em>&nbsp; 4% Black<\/em><\/p>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/td><td><em>38% 55+<\/em><\/td><td>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><em>&nbsp; 7% Hispanic<\/em><\/p>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/td><td><em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/td><td>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;4% Asian\/Other<\/em><\/p>\n<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One-third have doubts about Cruz\u2019s eligibility<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":40802251239,"template":"","geography":[18],"class_list":["post-40802207448","poll","type-poll","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","geography-national"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802207448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/poll"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802207448\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40802247833,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/poll\/40802207448\/revisions\/40802247833"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40802251239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40802207448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"geography","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/geography?post=40802207448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}