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Monmouth University Polling Institute

Trump Narrowly Leads Clinton

Monday, September 19, 2016

Isakson holds double digit edge in Senate race

West Long Branch, NJ  - Donald Trump has a 3 point lead in the contest for Georgia's electoral votes while Johnny Isakson is comfortably ahead in his bid for re-election to the U.S. Senate, according to the Monmouth University Poll .

Among Georgia voters likely to participate in November's presidential election, 45% support Trump and 42% back Hillary Clinton.  Another 8% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 5% are undecided.

Clinton actually holds a 55% to 35% lead over Trump in the greater Atlanta area - the six congressional districts surrounding Georgia's capital city - while Trump leads 51% to 33% in the rest of the state.  The Democrat's advantage around Atlanta is due almost entirely to the larger share of black voters who live in that region.

Clinton has a commanding 88% to 4% lead over Trump among black voters statewide.  Trump holds a strong 66% to 20% advantage, though, among white voters across Georgia.  This margin is similar among both white men (67% to 20%) and white women (65% to 21%).  Trump has an even larger lead among white voters without a college degree (78% to 10%) than he does among white college graduates (54% to 31%).

Among white voters age 50 and older, 68% support Trump, 23% support Clinton, and 6% support Johnson.  Among white voters under 50 years old, 63% support Trump, 16% support Clinton, and 16% support Johnson.

"There has been some talk of Georgia becoming part of a demographic realignment in presidential politics.  However, Clinton is not quite making the needed inroads among young white voters to take the lead here," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.  According to the 2008 National Election Pool exit poll, 98% of black voters and 23% of white voters in Georgia supported Obama that year, when he lost the state by 5 points.  There was no exit poll in 2012.

Georgia voters take a dim view of both major party candidates.  Only 33% have a favorable opinion of Trump while 50% hold an unfavorable view of him.  Likewise, only 32% have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 56% hold an unfavorable view of her.

Voters are somewhat divided over who can better handle illegal immigration, which has been the Republican nominee's signature issue.  While 47% give the nod to Trump, 44% trust Clinton to do a better job on this issue.  Trump has a similar advantage when it comes to economic concerns, with 48% who trust him more on jobs and the economy compared to 42% who prefer Clinton on this issue.

Turning to the Peach State's U.S. Senate race, two-term incumbent Johnny Isakson enjoys a large 16 point lead over businessman Jim Barksdale.  The race currently stands at 50% for Isakson and 34% for Barksdale, with 5% supporting Libertarian Allen Buckley and 10% who are undecided.

Isakson gets a solid job performance rating of 51% approve and 22% disapprove from likely voters.  The Republican's personal ratings are also positive at 44% favorable and 13% unfavorable, with 43% having no opinion.  His Democratic challenger is not as well known, with a 15% favorable and 3% unfavorable rating while fully 81% have no opinion of Barksdale.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from September 15 to 18, 2016 with 401 Georgia residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.    

   

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS                                                               

 (* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

   

1/2.   If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, or Gary Johnson the Libertarian?  [ IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?]  [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

45%     Donald Trump

42%     Hillary Clinton

  8%     Gary Johnson

<1%     (VOL) Other

  5%     (VOL) Undecided

3.      If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Johnny Isakson the Republican, Jim Barksdale the Democrat, or Allen Buckley the Libertarian?  [ IF UNDECIDED : If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward - Johnny Isakson or Jim Barksdale?] [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

50%     Johnny Isakson

34%     Jim Barksdale

  5%     Allen Buckley

10%     (VOL) Undecided

Regardless of who you may support for president…

[ QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED ]

4.      Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?  

33%     Favorable

50%     Unfavorable

17%     No opinion

5.      Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?  

32%     Favorable

56%     Unfavorable

12%     No opinion

[ QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED ]

6.      Who do you trust more to handle the issue of illegal immigration - Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?  [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

47%     Trump

44%     Clinton

  6%     (VOL) Neither

  3%     (VOL) Don't know

7.      Who do you trust more to handle the economy and jobs - Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

48%     Trump

42%     Clinton

  7%     (VOL) Neither

  3%     (VOL) Don't know

Turning to the Senate race…

[ QUESTIONS 8 & 9 WERE ROTATED ]

8.      Is your general impression of Johnny Isakson favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?  

44%     Favorable

13%     Unfavorable

43%     No opinion

9.      Is your general impression of Jim Barksdale favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?  

15%     Favorable

  3%     Unfavorable

81%     No opinion

10.    Do you approve or disapprove of the job Johnny Isakson is doing as U.S. senator?

51%     Approve

22%     Disapprove

28%     No opinion

METHODOLOGY  

The Monmouth University Poll  was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 15 to 18, 2016 with a random sample of 401 likely Georgia voters.  Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 351 drawn from a list of registered voters (201 landline / 150 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and voting history based on voter list and U.S. Census information.  Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample).  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).  Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below).  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with all tables

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