N.J. must reverse low population growth: REINHART

A recent report from the U.S. Census Bureau analyzing data from the American Community Survey identified those towns in New Jersey that are “shrinking” both in raw numbers and by percentage. Not surprisingly, many of the “biggest losers” in terms of population are those towns who saw growth during the 1980s and 1990s, but are no longer in the desired areas for the Generation X and Millennial generation, those now in their 20’s, 30’s and 40’s.

In the Monmouth/Ocean area, three municipalities made the top ten list with the largest decline in population from 2007 to 2017. Eatontown ranked eighth with a decline of 598 people; Middletown ranked seventh with a decline of 605, and Brick ranked fifth with a decline of 648 people. For Eatontown, the decline represents a loss of 4.6 percent of its total population, a not insignificant percentage. Overall, New Jersey did not grow much, a slim 0.3 percent.

Some of the loss in population can be attributed to the economic recession of 2008-2009, but there is more at play here. The same survey also reported the fastest “growing” municipalities in the state. Those fast-growing towns are either more urban centers or the ones near the urban centers, the so-called “inner suburbs.” Lakewood is the fastest-growing town in the state with an additional 26,529 people. This is principally due to the influx of the Orthodox Jewish community.

But the rest of the top ten are cities and towns like Jersey City, Hoboken, Clifton, North Bergen, Bayonne, Union City and New Brunswick. All these towns share a common trait of being more walkable, transit-oriented, higher density with amenities favored by the Generation X and millennials.

This report underscores the importance of these towns who are losing population or barely holding steady to again examine what they need to do to attract these younger age groups. That is why it was disappointing to hear that the proposed Freedom Pointe at the Route 35 entrance to the former Fort Monmouth property will not happen. It appears to be a dispute between the Fort people and the developer, and not anything to do with the desirability of the project type. The Fort people say they will move onto the next developer interested in the site.

But this loss of Freedom Pointe and the inevitable delay for any subsequent developer underscores the need for the redevelopment of Monmouth Mall to get started if Eatontown is going to stem the loss of population. With the creation of 700 new housing units, Eatontown will gain around 1,000 new residents, which would more than make up for the 598 it lost in the last decade.

The population decline story should serve as a wake-up call to those suburban towns, like Eatontown, that they will continue to face the challenge of a declining population unless they take steps to make their towns more attractive to the younger generations. The state also needs to do what it can to help these towns. It should not be acceptable for the state to have a growth rate of only 0.3 percent.

Even if the Hoboken, Jersey City and New Brunswick growth is strong, more needs to happen outside of those areas if New Jersey is going to be able to compete and attract growing companies who hire younger workers. New Jersey will continue to be at a disadvantage in its competition with the rest of the country unless it does more.

It is encouraging to see that Newark made it to the finals in the Amazon HQ2 race. If Newark is selected, the new Amazon workers will be looking for places to live. It presents an amazing opportunity for these suburban towns like Eatontown, Middletown and Brick to take the necessary steps to entice these workers to live there. It begins with providing the types of housing, entertainment, schools and transportation alternatives those generations want.

But even if Newark is not selected by Amazon, the challenge still remains and the need for this reinvention of towns continues. High property taxes are still a top complaint for residents of New Jersey. A continual drop in population in those outlying towns will only make the property tax problem worse. It is time for our leaders to recognize the reality and demonstrate the leadership for the short and long-term benefits of the people they represent now and in the future.

Peter S. Reinhart is the drector of the Kislak Real Estate Institute and the NJAR/Greenbaum/Ferguson Professor of Real Estate Policy at Monmouth University.