Every seat in NJ's Legislature is on the primary ballot June 6. Most people won't vote.

Every seat in the New Jersey Legislature is on the ballot this year. But pollster Patrick Murray is expecting a dismal turnout in June 6's party primary elections.

And with the vast majority of races for party nominations uncontested, he expects a lot of predictable outcomes.

Murray is the director of Monmouth University's Polling Institute, which has received a top rating from FiveThirtyEight. In 2021 — the last time all legislative seats were on the ballot, and a race for governor was taking place — primary turnout was just 12% of all eligible voters according to official state tallies. Murray notes that this time, there’s no presidential race, governor’s race or statewide election to drive people to the polls.

Each of New Jersey’s 40 legislative districts has three seats up for grabs — two Assembly seats and one state Senate seat. But among those, there are contested party primaries in just 13 districts.

“There are very few truly competitive races,” Murray said.

For instance: Renee Burgess, the Democrat appointed to replace the late state Sen. Ron Rice in Essex County's 28th Legislative District, is running unopposed for her party’s nomination. There is no Republican candidate running in that party’s primary. Assemblymember Britnee Timberlake is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination for the state Senate in the 34th District; no Republican is running there, either.

Most New Jersey primary ballots group all county party-endorsed candidates on a single column or row — known as the “county line” — which means candidates unfamiliar to voters can get a bump by being lumped in with more familiar incumbents and nominees for higher-profile races. A federal lawsuit that would change the ballot design still hasn’t been decided.

“A lot of other candidates who would run decide not to run because they’re basically told by the party organization, ‘If you run against us, you'll never work in this town again,’” he said. Candidates backed by county parties often enjoy a strong fundraising advantage, as well.

Voters in many districts will see unfamiliar names on the ballot, as incumbents won’t be running for at least 23% of the seats, either because of retirements or changes to district borders following the 2020 Census.

There isn’t likely to be any change to the state’s Democratic leadership of either house, though Democrats could potentially lose a few seats to Republicans in November’s general election, Murray said.

Centrist or MAGA Republicans?

Murray said he’s keeping an eye on Republican races in South Jersey’s 3rd and 4th Legislative Districts. He added that both could be in play in November’s general elections. Democrats will have to shift their general election strategy depending on the outcomes of those races, both in relatively conservative districts for New Jersey.

"Is that a more centrist Republican or a more MAGA Republican [who’ll run in the general election]?” Murray said. That will determine how Democrats campaign, and what the prospects are for flipping those seats, he said. The 3rd District's seats are all currently held by Republicans, while the 4th District's seats are held by Democrats.

In the 3rd District, Republican Ed Durr, a truck driver, surprised political watchers by ousting Democrat and state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Durr faces a primary challenge from his former running mate, Assemblymember Beth Sawyer, for a seat that represents parts of Cumberland, Salem and Gloucester counties. Durr has the party establishment’s endorsement in each county. He’s running with incumbent Assemblymember Bethanne McCarthy Patrick and their running mate, Thomas Tedesco Jr. Sawyer’s running mate is Joseph Collins Jr.

Durr — who sold Make America Great Again-style red "Ed the Trucker" hats after his 2021 victory — has taken a hard-right stance on social issues that has had little traction in Democrat-controlled Trenton. Politico reported in March that of 167 pieces of legislation he’d sponsored, none had been signed into law. They included measures to restrict abortion access, to relax gun control and to punish schools for teaching critical race theory or discussing sexual orientation in classrooms.

In the 4th Legislative District, longtime Democratic state Sen. Fred Madden is retiring, with Assemblymember Paul Moriarty unopposed in seeking his party’s nomination for the Senate.

Assemblymember Gabriela Mosquera, a Democrat, won’t be running for re-election this year. Instead, the Democrats are running Dan Hutchinson and Cody Miller, unopposed.

On the Republican side, seven candidates are seeking the three seats. Christopher Del Borrello and Nick DeSilvio are both seeking the Senate seat. Matthew Walker and Amanda Esposito are running for Assembly on a ticket with Del Borrello. Denise Gonzalez and Michael Clark seeking the Assembly seat on a ticket with DeSilvio. John Keating is seeking the Assembly seat as well, without a running mate.

Democratic heavyweights

Redistricting moved longtime state Sen. Nia Gill out of the 34th District and into the Essex County-based 27th District. There, she’ll face off against former Gov. and incumbent Sen. Dick Codey, who’d been her running mate when she first ran for and won an Assembly seat three decades ago. No Republican is running.

Codey will run with the party’s backing and the county line. Julia Sass Rubin, professor at Rutgers University's Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, told New Jersey Monitor earlier this month Gill has long been “a thorn in the side” of powerful Democratic lawmakers. She was first elected to the state Senate in 2021. In 2003, she fended off a primary challenge from party-backed LeRoy Jones, now chair of both the Democratic State Committee and the Essex County Democratic Committee, and went onto win re-election.

Codey will run for re-election on a ticket with incumbent Assemblymember John McKeon and Assembly candidate Alixon Collazos-Gill, wife of Essex County Commission President Brendan Gill. Assemblymember Tom Giblin is retiring.

Codey is the state’s longest-serving state senator and a former state Senate president. He was one of three senate presidents to serve as acting governor after Christine Todd Whitman’s resignation in 2001, and was acting governor after Jim McGreevey’s resignation in 2004. Legislation in 2006 established any “acting governor” who held the title for more than 180 days be named “governor.”

Gill is the longest-serving Black New Jersey legislator in office.

Can I vote in the primary?

New Jersey has closed primaries — meaning only voters registered with a party may take part. Unaffiliated voters can declare affiliations as late as primary Election Day. Voters who already have declared affiliations could change them no fewer than 55 days before the election; this year, that was April 12.

In the state Senate, Democrats currently hold 24 seats, and Republicans hold 16. In the Assembly, Democrats currently hold 46 seats, and Republicans hold 34. Independents hold no seats.